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Report

Teaser, summary, work performed and final results

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - PolEc (The Political Economy of Power Relations)

Teaser

Summary

To understand conflict risk at the interstate as well as inter-group level it is important to evaluate the evolution of multiple power relations. In standard international relations theory the main focus is on relative military power, but one of the main overall messages of the research projects within POLEC is that what matters the most is the mismatch between relative strength and the other forms of relative power that matter for the players involved, namely economic and political power. The JEL 2017 publication and the JPE 2019 publication illustrate the role of asymmetries and the role of mediators in international disputes.
On the power relations and their recent changes at the domestic political level, I have published an article on Economic Policy in January 2019, where we show that institutional constraints limiting political responsiveness can determine shifts of power towards extreme parties.

Work performed

Anticipate or prevent conflicts and anticipate or prevent significant changes in society are obviously important goals, which the POLEC project aims to contribute to. In terms of publications already achieved, the main results that push the frontier of knowledge are contained in the January and February 2019 publications, where the critical role of various institutions has been clearly shown.
Going forward I believe that the empirical projects on mismatch of powers and on the dynamics of politics and bureaucracy will yield results of clear interest too many.

Final results

Between now and the end of the project maximum effort will be devoted to the two empirical projects on conflict, one on the evaluation of mismatch of relative powers in general and the one for the case of oil and gas trade networks. I hope to find important result that will significantly increase our ability to evaluate conflict risks. In addition, the theory of secessions will have to be complemented by an empirical analysis and a policy analysis. These three projects and the overall research agenda on populism is where I hope to add major contributions in the last part of the project.