GLOBAL-IQ

Impacts Quantification of global changes

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'World societies experience today large transformation processes both in the social, economic and environmental dimensions. These transformations are usually described under the heading of ‘global change’, to emphasize the increasing interactions between them. The objective of the proposal is three-fold: (1) to provide significant advances in the estimation of socio-economic impacts of global challenges – at Global, European and regional scale; (2) to identify optimal adaptation strategies; (3) to evaluate total costs and the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation against global changes. Work Package (WP) 1 will examine the sources, interactions and characteristics of global changes, including the emergence of fast-growing economies, environmental degradation, competition on the use of exhaustible resources, international competitiveness issues. A primary objective of the proposal is to estimate socio-economic impacts arising from global changes by using economic models. The consortium is endowed with a large set of state-of-the-art, internationally renown, modeling tools. Models will be further expanded and enriched in WP 3. Key areas of research will be: agriculture, forestry, land use, energy, EU competitiveness, labor, international trade. The socio-economic impact of these challenges on key sectors/areas will be examined with the enhanced set of models in WP 4 and WP 5. While in WP 4 impacts of global challenges will be studied assuming limited adaptive capacity, in WP 5 optimal adaptation strategies will be examined. WP 5 will also inform on total costs of global challenges and on the optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation. In WP 2 will develop empirical and theoretical insights on key issues which will have a value per se and will also be used to enhance models in WP 3. WP 6 will complement the analysis of WP 4 and WP 5 developing theoretical innovations concerning discounting, risk and ambiguity and by testing them numerically with models.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

The world is undergoing a major transformation in the social, economic and environmental domains. An EU initiative has assessed the socioeconomic impacts of this global change on agriculture, forestry, energy, transportation, labour, health, population migration, competitiveness and trade in Europe.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

With EU funding, the http://www.global-iq.eu/ (GLOBAL-IQ) (Impacts quantification of global changes) project used the information gained to identify global change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Climate change and demographic and labour market developments were of particular interest. Project partners employed quantitative and modelling approaches to estimate the economic costs and benefits of global change.

Existing knowledge on global trends, change drivers, uncertainties and cross-impacts between demography, economy, environment and resources (climate, land and water) were reviewed. This is in addition to reviews on airborne pollution, renewable energy microgeneration by households and emissions mitigation in developing countries.

These key areas or sectors were used to further expand and enhance the modelling tools by examining the socioeconomic impacts of global changes and determining related adaptation strategies.

Various scenarios concerning the socioeconomic impacts of global changes at EU, national and regional levels were compared in order to determine the effects of different changes. The team calculated the total cost of different combinations of global changes by using economic models.

The socioeconomic transformations in sectors such as agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, infrastructure and tourism were defined. This enabled project members to identify the optimal combination of mitigation/adaptation strategies and to ultimately assess the overall cost of adapting to the global changes.

Lastly, novel theories on risk and ambiguity were developed and tested with the enhanced modelling tools. The theories assist stakeholders when analysing policies to mitigate and adapt to global change.

GLOBAL-IQ provided much needed insight into the effects of interconnected global changes in the EU and beyond, and offered the most advantageous policy responses to manage them.