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Report

Teaser, summary, work performed and final results

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - COTTON (Capacity Optimisation in TrajecTory-based OperatioNs)

Teaser

Summary

COTTON stands for Capacity Optimisation in TrajecTory-based OperatioNs. The project addresses the analysis and quantification of complexity uncertainty in a Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) environment. TBO requires aircraft to follow an agreed 4D trajectory in an environment of optimised sharing and management of trajectory information. The characterisation and prediction of the uncertainty generated by the Airspace Users preferences or by the ATM processes implementation can be used to better predict air traffic complexity and derived workload. This characterisation is essential to determine how TBO can support the Capacity Management processes.

COTTON proposes innovative solutions for the integration of predicted trajectoriesâ€™ uncertainty within the complexity and workload assessment methods and the Capacity Management processes. The focus of COTTON is on two SESAR 2020 concepts dealing with future airspace management â€“ Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Flight Centric ATC (FCA) â€“.

In this context, the main objective of COTTON is to maximise the effectiveness of the Capacity Management processes taking full advantage of the available trajectory information. COTTON will incorporate the trajectory uncertainty into an advanced model for demand and capacity balancing and integrate complexity and workload algorithms more suitable to DAC and FCA. COTTON main goal is divided into three main sub-objectives.

â€¢ Improve the use of trajectory-based complexity and workload assessment to support Capacity Management enabled by TBO including uncertainty.
â€¢ Identify and promote the benefits of TBO to develop innovative demand/capacity models based on DAC and FCA solutions.
â€¢ Explore DAC and FCA solutions integration.

Work performed

During the first year of the project, Capacity Management processes have been deeply analysed to develop an effective use of complexity within them. Complexity improvements have been proposed and developed considering not only the decision making to which the complexity assessment is serving but also the uncertainty of the available information to compute complexity.
Experts in the development of future Capacity Management processes and researchers on the management of trajectory uncertainty discussed about the best complexity solutions to support Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Flight Centric ATC (FCA) in COTTON First Workshop, which took place the 31st of May 2018. Then, the most relevant complexity generators that shall be considered at the different planning stages were identified.
From the perspective of the Demand and Capacity Balancing (DCB) processes, requirements of the complexity assessment have been issued based on the analysis of DAC and FCA use cases. These requirements specify the granularity, accuracy, and proper presentation of the complexity metric supporting each capacity management process. COTTON has worked also in the review of the DCB models to improve its effectiveness by including complexity and uncertainty assessment.
The research to include uncertainty in the complexity evaluation started with the development of a Bayesian Networks (BNs) modelling uncertainty propagation in the calculation of ATM complexity. They serve to identify the relevant variables in the complexity estimation, and to understand the causal relationships between factors influencing the complexity and the uncertainties associated.
An exhaustive list of complexity metrics have been analysed to assess their capability to support DAC and FCA capacity management processes. Then, COTTON complexity metrics improvements has been consolidated based on the requirements specified from the operational perspective as well as on the BN methodology. Three metrics have been selected to be further improved: Solution Space metric, Cognitive Complexity metric and Geometrical approach. COTTON has developed the mathematical formulation of the required improvements and performed the required verification tests.
The development of the complexity metrics is being complemented with human factors tests to validate the identification of the complexity generators affecting workload.
The elaboration of COTTON Validation Plan is on-going. COTTON validation will conduct a feasibility study to confirm the potential usefulness and expected benefits of the refined Capacity Management processes. Up to now, the task is focused in the definition of the three Fast Time Simulation exercises.
The integration of DAC and FCA capacity management processes has been initiated to ensure that the developed complexity improvements are also valid to support the integrated solution. Use cases to support the integration of DAC and FCA have been identified and some related complexity requirements described.

Final results

COTTON conducts an application-oriented research; it aims at achieving V1 (TRL2) at the end of the project by providing new operational improvements within the optimised ATM Network Services. The innovation aspect of COTTON is threefold:
- Capacity Management processes explicitly taking into account the uncertainty inherent to 4D trajectory planning process: within the current ATM system, trajectory uncertainty is not properly characterised and hardly used in complexity assessment and DCB processes. TBO imply more detailed definition of the 4D trajectory, higher prediction accuracy and better understanding of the trajectory uncertainty phenomena and therefore should be taken into account;
- Traffic complexity and workload assessment adapted to SESAR 2020 Capacity Management processes: current complexity assessment methodologies are linked to the traditional airspace organization with pre-defined sectors, whereas in DAC solution predefined sectors will not exist, and in FCA solution there will be co-existence of several controllers operating in the same airspace.
- An overall European ATM framework for Capacity Management in TBO integrating Dynamic Airspace Configuration (DAC) and Flight Centric ATC (FCA) solutions: COTTON addresses complementarity and interaction between the two main capacity-related solutions. While these two solutions are developed separately in SESAR 2020, this research looks at these solutions as part of an overall European ATM Capacity Management framework. It aims at clarifying conditions for application of each of them, and defines boundaries and interfaces to provide overall performance benefit for ATM system.
The expected impacts of the application of COTTON proposed operation impromvents are:
- Optimise the use of the airspace: Obtained as a consequence of integrating the use of the confidence level into the demand and capacity model.
- Increase ATCo Productivity: A better use and understanding of the complexity and workload assessment in a trajectory-based operations environment will allow better assignment of capacity to ATCo.
- Improve the use of Trajectories Prediction: COTTON will improve the capacity adjustment evaluating the complexity per trajectory. This improvement will reduce the risk of ATCo having to face complexity imbalances.