COMPLEX

Knowledge Based Climate Mitigation Systems for a Low Carbon Economy

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The science of complex systems distinguishes linear from non-linear dynamics. Simpler systems can often be satisfactory described by linear models, but complex systems require non-linear models that can capture more of the characteristics of such systems, such as thresholds, feedback loops, avalanche effects, and irreversibility. Linear systems can be validated by aligning models to the past and using the model to predict the future. Non-linear systems, however, are often time-asymmetric - they can be explained with the wisdom of hindsight, but are not always predictable. For example, systems may respond sharply to minor perturbations, and the quality of this response is a measure of the system resilience. In practice, non-linear dynamics are significant both at the micro-scale of small history and at the macro-scale of deep time. The brilliant young scientist, for example, may experience a series of epiphanies that change his/her understanding and behaviour in an unpredictable and irreversible way. The scientific community as a whole may experience an innovation-cascade that has a similar effect on a much larger scale. Current models of climate change and carbon emission assume the immediate past is a reasonable guide to the future. They struggle to represent the complex causal structures and time-asymmetries of many socio-natural systems. COMPLEX will integrate the quasi-classic models of meso-scale processes with our best understanding of fine-grained space-time patterns and the system-flips that are likely to occur in the long interval between now and 2050. We believe the sub-national region is the key point of entry for studying climate change and its cause-effect interrelations. It is small enough to be sensitive to local factors, large enough to interact with supra-national agencies and stable enough to be historically and culturally distinctive. In addition to undertaking case studies in Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, Spain and Italy, We will develop a suite of modelling tools and decision-support systems to inform national and supra-national policy and support communities across Europe working to make the transition to a low-carbon economy.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

The transition to a low carbon economy by 2050 will involve irreversible step-changes in the cultural, economic and natural domains, with qualitatively different socio-economic configurations before and after. COMPLEX will develop new modelling tools for managing step-change dynamics by working across a wide range of spatio-temporal scales, and integrating the knowledge of many stakeholder communities, for example in respect of land-use change driven by carbon-related technologies.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

The aim of the 'Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy' (http://www.complex.ac.uk/ (COMPLEX)) project is to help policymakers facilitate change. This will be achieved without compromising cultural and natural life-support systems.

Project members will explore new energy technologies, new ways of using landscapes and new policy instruments. Through a range of research activities, COMPLEX will explore the relationship between culture, models, human behaviour, space timescales and carbon economics.

Researchers will conduct case studies from Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden based on models of climate change and carbon emission. They will develop a suite of modelling tools and decision-support systems for helping manage the transition to a low-carbon economy by 2050.

The project will also integrate the knowledge of many stakeholder communities, such as in changes in land use due to carbon-related technologies. Other problem areas to be studied by the consortium include energy, agriculture, forestry and infrastructure.

Project partners will explore acceptance, implementation and realisation of climate mitigation policies. This will be done at the landscape scale from the perspectives of those key actors and communities most important for their implementation.

The consortium will also support the transition of Sweden's Stockholm-Malar region to a low-carbon society by analysing strategic societal choices and their consequences. This includes designing a toolkit for analysing emerging land-use patterns, economic development and impact of policy instruments. It will also analyse short- and long-term processes that connect scientific support to decision making at various levels.

COMPLEX will help uncover the path to a low-carbon society under varying climate scenarios and changes in the world situation. It will inform national and supranational policy and support those communities across Europe that are seeking to make the transition to a low-carbon economy.