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Bayesian Agent-based Population Studies: Transforming Simulation Models of Human Migration

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






Project "BAPS" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
address: Highfield
postcode: SO17 1BJ

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country United Kingdom [UK]
 Project website
 Total cost 1˙455˙590 €
 EC max contribution 1˙455˙590 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2016-COG
 Funding Scheme ERC-COG
 Starting year 2017
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2017-06-01   to  2021-05-31


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON UK (SOUTHAMPTON) coordinator 1˙413˙286.00
2    UNIVERSITAET ROSTOCK DE (ROSTOCK) participant 42˙303.00


 Project objective

The aim of BAPS is to develop a ground-breaking simulation model of international migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their social networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The project will transform the study of migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority EU policy area – by offering a step change in the way it can be understood, predicted and managed. In this way, BAPS will effectively integrate behavioural and social theory with modelling.

To develop micro-foundations for migration studies, model design will follow cutting-edge developments in demography, statistics, cognitive psychology and computer science. BAPS will also offer a pioneering environment for applying the findings in practice through a bespoke modelling language. Bayesian statistical principles will be used to design innovative computer experiments, and learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions.

In BAPS, we will collate available information for migration models; build and test the simulations by applying experimental design principles to enhance our knowledge of migration processes; collect information on the underpinning decision-making mechanisms through psychological experiments; and design software for implementing Bayesian agent-based models in practice. The project will use various information sources to build models bottom-up, filling an important epistemological gap in demography.

BAPS will be carried out by the Allianz European Demographer 2015, recognised as a leader in the field for methodological innovation, directing an interdisciplinary team with expertise in demography, agent-based models, statistical analysis of uncertainty, meta-cognition, and computer simulations. The project will open up exciting research possibilities beyond demography, and will generate both academic and practical impact, offering methodological advice for policy-relevant simulations.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2019 Oliver Reinhardt, Martin Hinsch, Adelinde Uhrmacher, Jakub Bijak
Developing Agent-based Migration Models in Pairs
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference 2019 2019-08-30
2019 Martin Hinsch, Jakub Bijak
Rumours lead to self-organized migration routes
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
Proceedings of the Artificial Life conference 2019. 2019-08-30
2018 Oliver Reinhardt, Jason Hilton, Tom Warnke, Jakub Bijak, Adelinde M. Uhrmacher
Streamlining Simulation Experiments with Agent-Based Models in Demography
published pages: , ISSN: 1460-7425, DOI: 10.18564/jasss.3784
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21/3 2019-06-12
2017 Jonathan Gray, Jason Hilton, Jakub Bijak
Choosing the choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models
published pages: 85-97, ISSN: 0032-4728, DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350280
Population Studies 71/sup1 2019-06-12
2018 Jakub Bijak
Model-Based Demography: Essays on Integrating Data, Technique and Theory
published pages: 275-277, ISSN: 0032-4728, DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1436026
Population Studies 72/2 2019-06-12

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The information about "BAPS" are provided by the European Opendata Portal: CORDIS opendata.

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