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CONSTRAIN SIGNED

Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections

Total Cost €

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EC-Contrib. €

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Partnership

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Project "CONSTRAIN" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.

Coordinator
UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS 

Organization address
address: WOODHOUSE LANE
city: LEEDS
postcode: LS2 9JT
website: www.leeds.ac.uk

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country United Kingdom [UK]
 Total cost 7˙999˙803 €
 EC max contribution 7˙999˙803 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.3.5.1. (Fighting and adapting to climate change)
 Code Call H2020-LC-CLA-2018-2
 Funding Scheme RIA
 Starting year 2019
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2019-07-01   to  2023-06-30

 Partnership

Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS UK (LEEDS) coordinator 1˙893˙367.00
2    CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRS FR (PARIS) participant 797˙547.00
3    MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FORDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN EV DE (MUENCHEN) participant 757˙983.00
4    CICERO SENTER KLIMAFORSKNING STIFTELSE NO (Oslo) participant 726˙497.00
5    METEO-FRANCE FR (SAINT MANDE CEDEX) participant 576˙417.00
6    EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH CH (ZUERICH) participant 556˙699.00
7    MET OFFICE UK (EXETER) participant 509˙161.00
8    CLIMATE ANALYTICS GMBH DE (BERLIN) participant 455˙025.00
9    STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET SE (STOCKHOLM) participant 437˙215.00
10    UNIVERSITAET LEIPZIG DE (LEIPZIG) participant 398˙734.00
11    IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE UK (LONDON) participant 397˙089.00
12    TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITEIT DELFT NL (DELFT) participant 302˙083.00
13    WEIZMANN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE IL (REHOVOT) participant 139˙234.00
14    INTERNATIONALES INSTITUT FUER ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANALYSE AT (LAXENBURG) participant 52˙745.00

Map

 Project objective

CONSTRAIN will focus research on three climate science knowledge gaps and a policy-facing knowledge gap that can be resolved over the next 4-5 years to significantly improve our understanding of how natural and human factors affect multi-decadal regional climate change. This will cement EU science as the world-leader in understanding climate sensitivity and climate variability, deliver significantly improved capability to make climate projections for the next 20-50 years, and provide up-to-date scientific evidence for international climate policy in two phases: Phase 1 will deliver a timely characterisation of physical science uncertainty and how it affects projections and committed levels of warming to the 2021 IPCC sixth assessment report; Phase 2 will deliver constrained surface temperature projections for the 2023 UNFCCC Global Stocktake. CONSTRAIN will take full advantage of climate model integrations from the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and will leverage existing H2020 and ERC projects. Novel CMIP6 analyses will be combined with dedicated high resolution simulations and new observations to address identified knowledge gaps on radiative forcing, cloud feedbacks and the relationship between ocean variability and atmospheric change. A fourth identified knowledge gap is the effective translation of new physical science understanding into an improved evidence base for policy decisions. CONSTRAIN will address this by developing climate model emulators that integrate and operationalise learning from across the consortium to provide new capability to assess impacts of climate change under a broad range of emission scenarios. We will focus on the expected spatially resolved decadal changes until mid-century providing robust evidence on climate sensitivity, and regional temperature, precipitation and circulation changes, thereby enabling evidence-based policy decisions that will directly benefit the EU's adaptation and mitigation strategy.

 Publications

year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2020 M. Michou, P. Nabat, D. Saint‐Martin, J. Bock, B. Decharme, M. Mallet, R. Roehrig, R. Séférian, S. Sénési, A. Voldoire
Present‐Day and Historical Aerosol and Ozone Characteristics in CNRM CMIP6 Simulations
published pages: , ISSN: 1942-2466, DOI: 10.1029/2019ms001816
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12/1 2020-04-24
2020 Yu Yeung Scott Yiu, Amanda C. Maycock
The linearity of the El Niño teleconnection to the Amundsen Sea region
published pages: , ISSN: 0035-9009, DOI: 10.1002/qj.3731
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 2020-04-24
2020 Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Martin B. Stolpe, Sebastian Sippel, Erich M. Fischer, Christopher J. Smith, Flavio Lehner, Reto Knutti
Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models
published pages: eaaz9549, ISSN: 2375-2548, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549
Science Advances 6/12 2020-04-24
2019 Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj
Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot
published pages: 1283-1295, ISSN: 2328-4277, DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001312
Earth\'s Future 7/12 2020-04-24
2019 Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexander Nauels, Michiel Schaeffer, William Hare, Joeri Rogelj
Inconsistencies when applying novel metrics for emissions accounting to the Paris agreement
published pages: 124055, ISSN: 1748-9326, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab56e7
Environmental Research Letters 14/12 2020-04-24
2019 Joeri Rogelj, Piers M. Forster, Elmar Kriegler, Christopher J. Smith, Roland Séférian
Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets
published pages: 335-342, ISSN: 0028-0836, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
Nature 571/7765 2020-04-24
2019 Jessica Vial, Raphaela Vogel, Sandrine Bony, Bjorn Stevens, David M. Winker, Xia Cai, Cathy Hohenegger, Ann Kristin Naumann, Hélène Brogniez
A New Look at the Daily Cycle of Trade Wind Cumuli
published pages: 3148-3166, ISSN: 1942-2466, DOI: 10.1029/2019MS001746
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 11/10 2020-04-24
2019 Diego Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta, Thorsten Mauritsen
Emergent constraints on Earth’s transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO2 from post-1970s global warming
published pages: 902-905, ISSN: 1752-0894, DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y
Nature Geoscience 12/11 2020-04-24
2019 Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Joeri Rogelj, Martin B. Stolpe, H. Damon Matthews, Peter Pfleiderer, Nathan P. Gillett
Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy
published pages: 964-971, ISSN: 1752-0894, DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0493-5
Nature Geoscience 12/12 2020-04-24
2019 Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, Friedrich A. Burger
The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions
published pages: 4375-4385, ISSN: 1991-9603, DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
Geoscientific Model Development 12/10 2020-04-24

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