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Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene (ERA)Integrating non-linear biophysical and social determinantsof Earth-system stability for global sustainabilitythrough a novel community modelling platform

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






Project "ERA" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
postcode: 10691

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country Sweden [SE]
 Project website
 Total cost 2˙492˙834 €
 EC max contribution 2˙492˙834 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2016-ADG
 Funding Scheme ERC-ADG
 Starting year 2017
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2017-10-01   to  2022-09-30


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET SE (STOCKHOLM) coordinator 2˙492˙834.00


 Project objective

In 2015, the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate recognised the deteriorating resilience of the Earth system in the Anthropocene. Maintaining Earth in the interglacial state that enabled the world’s societies to evolve over the past 12,000 years will require industrialised societies to embark on global-scale social transformations. Otherwise, there is a real risk of crossing tipping points in the Earth system triggering abrupt and irreversible changes. A critical gap is that although nonlinear social and biophysical dynamics are recognized, we remain trapped in linear thinking. Global modelling and analyses – despite much progress – do not adequately represent nonlinear processes and abrupt changes, and social responses to sustainable development are incremental. The goal of this project is to fill this gap, by exploring the biophysical and social determinants of the Earth’s long-term stability, building up a novel community modelling platform for analysis of nonlinearity and abrupt shifts, and informing global sustainability policy processes. The project will investigate two hypotheses: 1) Interactions, feedbacks and tipping points in the biosphere could, even in the absence of continued high emissions from fossil-fuel burning, tip Earth into a new state, committing to global warming over 2C and possibly beyond 4C; and 2) Only nonlinear societal transformations that aggregate to the global scale can assure long-term stability of the Earth and keep it in a manageable interglacial state. The five research tasks are Task 1: analysis of nonlinear biosphere dynamics governing Earth resilience. Task 2: integrating nonlinear dynamics in World-Earth models. Task 3: exploring tipping points in social systems for large-scale transformation. Task 4: backcasting pathways for achieving the SDGs. Task 5: integrating World-Earth dynamics into online learning and virtual-reality games, e.g. Planet3 and Minecraft.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2018 Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
published pages: 8252-8259, ISSN: 0027-8424, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1810141115
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115/33 2019-06-07
2018 Georgina M. Mace, Mike Barrett, Neil D. Burgess, Sarah E. Cornell, Robin Freeman, Monique Grooten, Andy Purvis
Aiming higher to bend the curve of biodiversity loss
published pages: 448-451, ISSN: 2398-9629, DOI: 10.1038/s41893-018-0130-0
Nature Sustainability 1/9 2019-06-07
2018 Marco Springmann, Michael Clark, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Keith Wiebe, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Luis Lassaletta, Wim de Vries, Sonja J. Vermeulen, Mario Herrero, Kimberly M. Carlson, Malin Jonell, Max Troell, Fabrice DeClerck, Line J. Gordon, Rami Zurayk, Peter Scarborough, Mike Rayner, Brent Loken, Jess Fanzo, H. Charles J. Godfray, David Tilman, Johan Rockström, Walter Willett
Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits
published pages: 519-525, ISSN: 0028-0836, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0
Nature 562/7728 2019-06-07
2018 Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Ingo Fetzer, Patrick W. Keys, Ruud J. van der Ent, Hubert H. G. Savenije, Line J. Gordon
Remote land use impacts on river flows through atmospheric teleconnections
published pages: 4311-4328, ISSN: 1607-7938, DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22/8 2019-06-07

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