EURISGIC

European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC), occurring during magnetic storms, pose a natural disaster risk to the reliable operation of electric power transmission grids, a European critical infrastructure as defined by the Council Directive 2008/114/EC.

The EURISGIC project will produce the first European-wide real-time prototype forecast service of GIC in power systems, based on in-situ solar wind observations and comprehensive simulations of the Earth's magnetosphere. By utilising geomagnetic recordings, we will also derive the first map of the statistical risk of large GIC throughout Europe. Because the most intense geomagnetic storms constitute the most remarkable threat, with a risk of power grid blackouts and destruction of transformers, we will also investigate worst-case GIC scenarios based on historical data. EURISGIC will exploit the knowledge and advanced modelling methods developed in Europe and North America. Close communication throughout the project with a stakeholder advisory group will help in directing the research and outreach appropriately. The results of this study will help in the future design of more robust and secure protection against GIC in power transmission grids in Europe, which are anticipated to become increasingly interconnected and geographically wider.

GIC are observed in power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunication cables and railways. This project focuses on high-voltage power transmission networks, which are probably currently the most susceptible to GIC effects. Geomagnetic storms cover large geographical regions, at times the whole globe. Consequently, power networks are rightly described as being European critical infrastructures whose disruption or destruction would have a significant impact on at least two member states (Council Directive 2008/114/EC; Article 2b; Annex I).'

Introduzione (Teaser)

Geomagnetic storms create excess currents in the power grid, which can at worst damage electric transformers and cause blackouts.EU-funded scientists have systematically estimated the occurrence of these currents across Europe's high-voltage power transmission systems.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

Geomagnetic storms are major disturbances in the space environment surrounding Earth that occur when there is a very efficient exchange of energy with the solar wind. On the surface of the Earth, these rapid changes in the magnetic field create currents in all conductive materials, including power grids.

During its three-year lifetime, the 'European risk from geomagnetically induced currents' (http://www.eurisgic.eu/ (EURISGIC)) project consortium developed a model of the flow of these hazardous geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in European power transmission systems. Statistics of GIC activity were compiled using magnetic field measurements collected between 1996 and 2008.

Although variations in the geomagnetic field are stronger close to the auroral zone producing GICs reaching up to a few hundred amperes. Currents up to tens of amperes were also modelled in southern regions of Europe. EURISGIC researchers also estimated the largest possible GICs over a 100-year period, which could be twice as large as those modelled. In addition, EURISGIC scientists derived the first-ever map of the statistical risk of large GICs in European power transmission systems.

EURISGIC took on this major challenge with a view to establishing a European capability for 30 to 60-minute lead time forecasts of GICs in power systems throughout Europe. The first European-wide near-real-time forecasting services of GIC in power systems is based on in situ solar wind observations and advanced magnetospheric simulations or neural network methods.

Early warning forecasts, risk maps and worst-case scenario assessments provided by the EURISGIC project will contribute to mitigating the risk that GICs present in present grids. The prototype forecasting services and statistical maps of risk to European high-voltage networks could also provide insights into effects of GICs in other areas of the world.

Finally, given that GICs affect oil and gas pipelines as well as telecommunication cables and railway systems, the project provides a stepping stone from which to address other concerns.