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Resolving conflicts between food security and biodiversity conservation under uncertainty

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






Project "ConFooBio" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
address: .
postcode: FK9 4LA

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country United Kingdom [UK]
 Total cost 1˙497˙151 €
 EC max contribution 1˙497˙151 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2015-STG
 Funding Scheme ERC-STG
 Starting year 2016
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2016-09-01   to  2021-08-31


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    THE UNIVERSITY OF STIRLING UK (STIRLING) coordinator 1˙497˙151.00


 Project objective

Resolving conflicts between food security and biodiversity conservation under uncertainty

Conflicts between food security and biodiversity conservation are increasing in scale and intensity and have been shown to be damaging for both biodiversity and human livelihoods. Uncertainty, for example from climate change, decreases food security, puts further pressure on biodiversity and exacerbates conflicts.

I propose to develop a novel model that predicts solutions to conflicts between biodiversity conservation and food security under uncertainty. ConFooBio will integrate game theory and social-ecological modelling to develop new theory to resolve conservation conflicts. ConFooBio will implement a three-tiered approach 1) characterise and analyse 7 real-world conservation conflicts impacted by uncertainty; 2) develop new game theory that explicitly incorporates uncertainty; and 3) produce and test a flexible social-ecological model, applicable to any real-world conflict where stakeholders operate under conditions of extreme uncertainty.

The project has importance for society at large because ecosystems and their services are central to human wellbeing. Managing a specific natural resource often results in conflict between those stakeholders focussing on improving food security and those focussed on biodiversity conversation. ConFooBio will illuminate resolutions to such conflicts by showing how to achieve win-win scenarios that protect biodiversity and secure livelihoods. In this project, I will develop a practical, transparent and flexible model for the sustainable future of natural resources that is also robust to uncertainty (e.g., climate change); this model will be highly relevant for environmental negotiations among stakeholders with competing objectives, e.g., the negotiations to set the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in September 2015.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2017 Ayesha I.T. Tulloch, Sam Nicol, Nils Bunnefeld
Quantifying the expected value of uncertain management choices for over-abundant Greylag Geese
published pages: 147-155, ISSN: 0006-3207, DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2017.08.013
Biological Conservation 214 2019-06-19
2018 Emma R. Bush, Nils Bunnefeld, Edmond Dimoto, Jean-Thoussaint Dikangadissi, Kathryn Jeffery, Caroline Tutin, Lee White, Katharine A. Abernethy
Towards effective monitoring of tropical phenology: maximizing returns and reducing uncertainty in long-term studies
published pages: 455-464, ISSN: 0006-3606, DOI: 10.1111/btp.12543
Biotropica 50/3 2019-05-15
2019 Jeremy J. Cusack, A. Brad Duthie, O. Sarobidy Rakotonarivo, Rocío A. Pozo, Tom H.E. Mason, Johan Månsson, Lovisa Nilsson, Ingunn M. Tombre, Einar Eythórsson, Jesper Madsen, Ayesha Tulloch, Richard D. Hearn, Steve Redpath, Nils Bunnefeld
Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe
published pages: e12450, ISSN: 1755-263X, DOI: 10.1111/conl.12450
Conservation Letters 12/1 2019-05-15
2018 A. Bradley Duthie, Jeremy J. Cusack, Isabel L. Jones, Jeroen Minderman, Erlend B. Nilsen, Rocío A. Pozo, O. Sarobidy Rakotonarivo, Bram Van Moorter, Nils Bunnefeld
GMSE : An r package for generalised management strategy evaluation
published pages: 2396-2401, ISSN: 2041-210X, DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13091
Methods in Ecology and Evolution 9/12 2019-05-15
2018 Tom H.E. Mason, Chris R.J. Pollard, Deepthi Chimalakonda, Angela M. Guerrero, Catherine Kerr‐Smith, Sergio A.G. Milheiras, Michaela Roberts, Paul R. Ngafack, Nils Bunnefeld
Wicked conflict: Using wicked problem thinking for holistic management of conservation conflict
published pages: e12460, ISSN: 1755-263X, DOI: 10.1111/conl.12460
Conservation Letters 11/6 2019-05-15
2019 Jeroen Minderman, Jeremy J. Cusack, A. Bradley Duthie, Isabel L. Jones, Rocío A. Pozo, O. Sarobidy Rakotonarivo, Nils Bunnefeld
Decision trees for data publishing may exacerbate conservation conflict
published pages: 318-318, ISSN: 2397-334X, DOI: 10.1038/s41559-019-0804-7
Nature Ecology & Evolution 3/3 2019-05-15

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