RANGESHIFT

Modelling the response of biodiversity to environmental change

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'Climate change is considered to be among the largest threats to biodiversity, and the primary response of the species to changes in regional climates is to shift their ranges. However, to date projections of species’ responses to changes in the environment are typically based merely on the species’ association with environmental conditions, and do not take account for either biotic interactions or the ability of species to follow the changing 'climate envelope' through dispersal. Therefore there is an urgent need for incorporating more realism into species distribution modelling in order to inform more successful conservation planning. This project aims both to contribute new theoretical understanding of how the spatial structure of a landscape contributes to the success or failure of range-shifting by species and species assemblages and to provide some novel tools for conservation. These goals will be achieved by adopting a landscape-centric approach for modelling biodiversity responses to environmental change. The novel landscape permeability modelling framework will link ecological and genetic dynamics. The modelling tool will be developed such that it can be used both for strategic modelling for elucidating the generic ecological and genetic dynamics of range-shifting across landscapes with different characteristics and for much more applied modelling focussing on spatial conservation prioritisation for real sets of species on real landscapes. The research will identify strategies for habitat creation and restoration that can easily be applied to current, real landscapes, and that should optimise the proportion and diversity of species able to effectively shift their ranges as climate changes.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

One of the greatest threats facing biodiversity is climate change, and the primary response of species to regional climate change is to shift their range. An EU-funded initiative was established to ensure greater realism in species distribution models.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

The RANGESHIFT (Modelling the response of biodiversity to environmental change) project provided a new theoretical understanding of how a landscape's spatial structure contributes to the success or failure of range shifting by species. This was achieved using a landscape-based approach for modelling biodiversity responses to environmental change.

Project partners developed a modelling tool for simulating population responses of several artificial species to various woodland management scenarios. These scenarios included restoration, creation and improvement of forest habitats within United Kingdom landscapes with varied habitat compositions. The artificial species represented long- and short-range dispersers and a number of life history strategies.

Results showed the differences in the speed of range expansion for each of the studied species, depending on the management strategy and landscape composition. The rate at which the landscape changes can also play an important role in the range expansion process.

Researchers also developed a model for investigating the accumulation of mutations during the formation of species range limits. Results from the RANGESHIFT study revealed the important role deleterious mutations may play in range formation.

Dispersal was found to be a key factor in the speed of range shifting. Researchers therefore investigated how individuals acquire and use information in order to make more adaptive dispersal decisions. It was theorised that animals may use a combination of genetically encoded and acquired information to guide their behaviour. This data was essential for understanding gene flow and speciation, as well as the local persistence of species facing local extinction.

RANGESHIFT enabled scientists to accurately model the ecological and genetic dynamics of range shifting across different landscapes. The project also identified strategies for habitat creation and restoration that can be easily applied to real landscapes, thereby optimising the number of species able to effectively shift their ranges as the climate changes.