SIMID

Simulation Modeling to Improve Decision Making in Complex-Dynamic Environments

 Coordinatore BOGAZICI UNIVERSITESI 

 Organization address address: BEBEK
city: ISTANBUL
postcode: 34342

contact info
Titolo: Prof.
Nome: Gulay
Cognome: Barbarosoglu
Email: send email
Telefono: +90 212 3596826
Fax: +90 212 2657006

 Nazionalità Coordinatore Turkey [TR]
 Totale costo 100˙000 €
 EC contributo 100˙000 €
 Programma FP7-PEOPLE
Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013)
 Code Call FP7-PEOPLE-2010-RG
 Funding Scheme MC-IRG
 Anno di inizio 2010
 Periodo (anno-mese-giorno) 2010-12-01   -   2014-11-30

 Partecipanti

# participant  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    BOGAZICI UNIVERSITESI

 Organization address address: BEBEK
city: ISTANBUL
postcode: 34342

contact info
Titolo: Prof.
Nome: Gulay
Cognome: Barbarosoglu
Email: send email
Telefono: +90 212 3596826
Fax: +90 212 2657006

TR (ISTANBUL) coordinator 100˙000.00

Mappa

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 Word cloud

Esplora la "nuvola delle parole (Word Cloud) per avere un'idea di massima del progetto.

game    linear    limits    subjects    tested    variables    dynamics    heuristics    complexity    decision    relatively    decisions    environments    dynamic    makers    human    models    simulation   

 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The overall aim of this project is to improve decision making in the presence of dynamic complexity, which is a challenging task. The main reason behind this challenge is the inadequacy of our intuitive skills in coping with complex dynamic decision-making situations. Dynamic complexity often overwhelms human decision makers, leading to poor decisions. Effective learning cannot typically take place in complex decision making environments. Simulation game based human experiments show that performances of participants initially improve, but quickly plateau at substantially non-optimum levels after a few trials with the same game. Most interestingly, the dynamic complexity we refer to does not necessitate hundreds or even tens of variables. It has been established that the dynamics of just 2-3 variables can be very complex, if their interactions involve delayed feedback loops and non-linear relations. Managing sustainable growth in public and private domains is a typical example of systemic-dynamic complexity. In early growth phases, growth is relatively easy and the decision makers do not recognize the approaching limits, especially since such limits are not fixed, but dynamically created by the very growth process itself. When the growth limits are recognized, it is often too late to avoid the imminent collapse, due to delays and non-linear effects in the system. The main objective of this project is to explore the roots of such decision complexities on relatively small simulation models and suggest methods and heuristics to improve decision making in complex environments. System dynamics method will be used in building models that will then be converted into interactive games on which decisions of subjects will be tested. A training method will be developed and tested for the subjects and decision heuristics will be developed and tested by mathematical formulations.'

Altri progetti dello stesso programma (FP7-PEOPLE)

AR3WS (2012)

"Acquiring and Responding to the 3D World, Smartly"

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ISOGLASS (2011)

"Archaeometric investigation of ancient glass – identification of the sources of Cu, Sb and Ti via isotopic analysis using (laser ablation) multi-collector ICP – mass spectrometry"

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P3LIG (2010)

"People, prey and predators: Community dynamics in the Last Interglacial"

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