COMESEP

COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'This project develops tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms based on scientific data analysis and modeling. During the solar cycle, the Sun goes from quiet conditions at minimum to levels of high activity at maximum, where energetic phenomena, particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and SEPs, are common. These are accompanied by explosive release of mass, magnetic flux and energetic particles which may have damaging effects on satellites and on-board detectors. In extreme cases the effects may even be observed on ground-based systems (e.g., pipelines, power-grids). Returning humans to the Moon with the next possible stop Mars will mean ensuring the safety of the astronauts from these extreme conditions of space, especially the energetic particle environments. This includes particularly the sporadic SEP events that can disrupt the normal functioning of human cells. In this project data analysis and modeling will feed into the development of forecasting tools for both geomagnetic storms and SEPs. The tools will be incorporated into an automated operational European Space Weather Alert system. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredients that lead to magnetic storm and SEP events and the factors that are responsible for false alarms will be identified. To enhance our understanding of the 3D kinematics and interplanetary propagation of CMEs, the structure, propagation and evolution of CMEs will be investigated. In parallel, the sources and propagation of SEPs will be examined and modeled. Based on the insights gained, and making use of algorithms for the automated detection of CMEs, forecasting tools for geomagnetic and SEP radiation storms will be developed and optimised. Validation and implementation of the produced tools into an operational Space Weather Alert system will be performed.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

Orbiting satellites and electrical grids on Earth are vulnerable to space weather in the form of high-energy particles coming from the Sun. An EU-funded initiative is developing an alert system to forecast these geomagnetic storms.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

During the solar cycle, the Sun goes from a quiet condition to levels of high activity, displaying phenomena such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs). These are accompanied by the explosive release of mass, magnetic flux and energetic particles that can damage satellites and on-board detectors. In extreme cases, ground-based systems such as power grids are at risk, and if astronauts are to travel to Mars or return to the moon they must be protected from these events.

The 'Coronal mass ejections and solar energetic particles: Forecasting the space weather impact' (COMESEP) project developed tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and SEP radiation storms. Researchers used scientific data analysis and computer models to investigate the propagation of SEPs and CMEs, and developed an operational space weather alert system based on the COMESEP definition of risk. The project also investigated very large events from the pre-satellite era using historical ground-based observations, including geomagnetic records, sunspot data, solar images and drawings.

Project partners investigated and selected automation detection algorithms for the alert system and examined different solar wind models for use in interplanetary CME propagation tools. A novel technique based on remote-sensing observations and in situ measurements was also developed for determining the movement and direction of interplanetary CMEs. In addition, an analytical model was developed to calculate the arrival time and speed of an interplanetary CME hitting an orbiting space craft.

COMESEP scientists used measurements of heavy ion flux by the Ulysses and Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft to investigate the evolution of SEP characteristics in the area around the Sun known as the heliosphere. The impact of large-scale interplanetary magnetic field structures on SEP profiles was also studied. In addition, researchers developed a test particle model to study SEP propagation from the Sun and included the results in space weather models.

The work carried out by COMESEP increased international and European collaboration on space weather research and forecasting. It also complemented the European Space Agency's (ESA) space situational awareness activities for security of space assets from space weather events. The alert system will help mitigate the impact of space weather on vulnerable technologies in space such as satellites communication and navigation systems as well as ground communication and electrical grids.