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The Violence Early-Warning System: Building a Scientific Foundation for Conflict Forecasting

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






 ViEWS project word cloud

Explore the words cloud of the ViEWS project. It provides you a very rough idea of what is the project "ViEWS" about.

collection    quality    warnings    continuous    evaluation    political    phenomena    unprecedented    rigorous    vard    efforts    isolated    team    model    techniques    components    programs    adapting    laid    scope    forecasting    leverage    rebel    ground    concomitant    transparency    countries    systematic    bayesian    sufficient    aring    provider    integrate    informative    scholars    warning    limiting    bridges    africa    views    innovation    daunting    limited    geographical    concentrating    methodological    world    consistent    forced    publicly    compartmentalized    combination    sub    effort    groups    manageable    scalable    integration    national    data    conflict    forms    civilians    averaging    pilot    escalates    performance    actors    methodologically    assist    international    uppsala    simulation    theoretical    armed    feasible    hegre    violence    guided    population    iteratively    disaggregated    populations    led    dynamic    careful    community    preventing    mitigating    isolation    displacement    exist    units   

Project "ViEWS" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
postcode: 751 05

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country Sweden [SE]
 Total cost 2˙496˙972 €
 EC max contribution 2˙496˙972 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2015-AdG
 Funding Scheme ERC-ADG
 Starting year 2017
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2017-01-01   to  2021-12-31


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    UPPSALA UNIVERSITET SE (UPPSALA) coordinator 2˙496˙972.00


 Project objective

The challenges of preventing, mitigating, and adapting to large-scale political violence are daunting, particularly when violence escalates where it is not expected. Early-warning systems of sufficient quality and transparency do not exist, limiting the ability of the international community to effectively assist affected populations. We propose to develop, test, and iteratively improve a pilot Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS) that is rigorous, data-based, and publicly available to researchers and the international community. This objective is challenging but feasible. The conflict research community has laid the ground for such a system through careful isolation of theoretically manageable sub-components of complex phenomena, and concomitant systematic, disaggregated data collection efforts. A major innovation in the project is to integrate these isolated research programs into a theoretically and methodologically consistent forecasting system, by means of dynamic simulation techniques in combination with Bayesian Model Averaging, and guided by continuous out-of-sample evaluation. This integration effort will not only allow an early-warning system of unprecedented scope and performance, but also build theoretically informative bridges between numerous compartmentalized conflict research programs. Concentrating on theoretical and methodological development, the pilot will be limited in scope to Africa but be scalable. ViEWS will provide early warnings for four forms of political violence: armed conflict involving states and rebel groups, armed conflict between non-state actors, violence against civilians, and forced population displacement, and apply these to specific actors, sub-national geographical units, and countries. Led by Håvard Hegre, the system will leverage the data resources within the Uppsala Conflict Data program, the world-leading provider of conflict data, in combination with a strong team of highly experienced conflict scholars.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2019 Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Håvard Hegre
The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis
published pages: , ISSN: 0048-5829, DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00742-z
Public Choice 2020-03-05
2018 HÃ¥vard Hegre
Freds- og konfliktforskning og den fredsbevarende virkningen av demokrati og økonomiske nettverk [Peace and Conflict Research and the pacifying Effect of Democracy and Economic Networks]
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
Ã…rbok for Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi 2019-06-13
2019 Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Evaluating the Conflict-Reducing Effect of UN Peacekeeping Operations
published pages: , ISSN: 0022-3816, DOI:
The Journal of Politics 2019-06-13
2019 Hanne Fjelde, Lisa Hultman & Desirée Nilsson
Protection through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of targeting Civilians
published pages: , ISSN: 0020-8183, DOI:
International Organization 73(1) 2019-06-13
2018 HÃ¥vard Hegre
Verden er blitt mere fredelig - vil denne trenden fortsette? [The World has become more Peaceful - Will this Trend Continue?]
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
Kungl. vetenskapssocietetens årbok 2019-06-13
2017 Gerald Schneider, Maya Hadar, Naomi Bosler
The oracle or the crowd? Experts versus the stock market in forecasting ceasefire success in the Levant
published pages: 231-242, ISSN: 0022-3433, DOI: 10.1177/0022343316683437
Journal of Peace Research 54/2 2019-08-29
2018 Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen, Naima Mouhleb, Sayyed Auwn Muhammad, Desirée Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Gerald Schneider, Nina von Uexkull, Jonas Vestby
ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
published pages: 155-174, ISSN: 0022-3433, DOI: 10.1177/0022343319823860
Journal of Peace Research 56/2 2019-08-29
2019 Nils B. Weidmann, Espen Geelmuyden Rød
The Internet and Political Protest in Autocracies
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
Oxford Studies in Digital Politics 2019-08-29
2020 Halvard Buhaug, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Nina von Uexkull
A conditional model of local income shock and civil conflict
published pages: , ISSN: 0022-3816, DOI:
The Journal of Politics 2019-08-29
2019 Espen Geelmuyden Rød
Fraud, grievances, and post-election protests in competitive authoritarian regimes
published pages: 12-20, ISSN: 0261-3794, DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2019.01.003
Electoral Studies 58 2019-08-29
2018 Mihai Croicu, HÃ¥vard Hegre
A Fast Spatial Multiple Imputation Procedure for Imprecise Armed Conflict Events
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
2018 Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, Stina Högbladh
Introducing the UCDP-Candidate Events Dataset and the ViEWS Outcomes dataset. Monthly updated organized violence data in the form of events data as well as aggregated to the country-month and PRIO-GRID-month level
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:

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