ECLIPS

Enhanced Climate Predictability involving the Subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The project proposed here aims at improving the dynamical understanding of the subpolar gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. The primary research tools are numerical modeling and state-of-the-art statistical and physical analyses.

Advance in this field is important because the subpolar gyre is a key region for decadal climate variability and therefore related to many changes that impact human societies and economies in this region. Demand for improved decadal predictions has increased in recent years. Many research institutions are currently designing elaborate numerical prediction systems for climate services. However, the performance of climate models with respect to the subpolar gyre has not been investigated yet. Previous work suggests large differences in the simulated dynamics and variability, limiting the prediction skill.

We propose the first time intercomparison of this circulation system in comprehensive climate models. Moreover, we will perform specifically designed experiments with coupled and uncoupled climate models to investigate how decadal climate variability is generated by atmosphere-ocean exchanges, and to quantify the importance of different physical fluxes and different regions. In order to make our results available and facilitate their application, they will be conceptualized in a mathematical model, a minimal prediction system. This mechanistic understanding complements large numerical prediction efforts at partner institutions.

The project is motivated by a novel understanding of historic climate changes that the applicant developed during his doctoral studies. We will take this idea as a promising starting point, scrutinize the underlying dynamics and develop this approach into a useful model of climate variability. The applicant will receive complementary training in the necessary skills. He will also improve his educational and outreach skills for which the host is exceptionally well prepared.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

The Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) is a circular system of ocean currents that plays a key role in climate variability over a timescale of tens to thousands of years. The SPG has great potential for improving much-needed climate predictions, but this requires a more detailed understanding of the phenomenon.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

An EU-funded project called 'Enhanced climate predictability involving the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic' (ECLIPS) provided a clearer picture of the SPG. Researchers investigated 19 climate models to reveal the mechanisms that drive the SPG and to develop an idealized mathematical model based on these principles. The primary research tools were numerical modelling and state-of-the-art statistical and physical analyses.

The idealized model is capable of reproducing SPG variations as simulated by much more comprehensive models. It can also predict conditions under which multiple equilibria of the SPG can occur, increasing basic understanding and providing the opportunity to investigate abrupt changes in the SPG. In addition, interaction between the SPG and the atmosphere was studied within the context of climate events over the last 1000 years.

A demonstration of the ECLIPS conceptual model was carried out to demonstrate its usefulness in describing past variations in the SPG. The model's value lies in its simplified but accurate understanding of the dynamics of the SPG. An improved understanding of the SPG and climate variability will also enable scientists to make better predictions of future impacts on human societies and economies in the region.

The work conducted by ECLIPS can form the basis for future studies, such as on concurrent climate change and natural variations of the North Atlantic climate. It has also led to five scientific articles in peer-reviewed journals.