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FORECASToneMONTH SIGNED

Forecasting Surface Weather and Climate at One-Month Leads through Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

Total Cost €

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EC-Contrib. €

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Partnership

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Project "FORECASToneMONTH" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.

Coordinator
THE HEBREW UNIVERSITY OF JERUSALEM 

Organization address
address: EDMOND J SAFRA CAMPUS GIVAT RAM
city: JERUSALEM
postcode: 91904
website: www.huji.ac.il

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country Israel [IL]
 Total cost 1˙808˙000 €
 EC max contribution 1˙808˙000 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2015-STG
 Funding Scheme ERC-STG
 Starting year 2016
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2016-05-01   to  2021-04-30

 Partnership

Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    THE HEBREW UNIVERSITY OF JERUSALEM IL (JERUSALEM) coordinator 1˙719˙000.00
2    NEW YORK UNIVERSITY US (NEW YORK) participant 89˙000.00

Map

 Project objective

Anomalies in surface temperatures, winds, and precipitation can significantly alter energy supply and demand, cause flooding, and cripple transportation networks. Better management of these impacts can be achieved by extending the duration of reliable predictions of the atmospheric circulation.

Polar stratospheric variability can impact surface weather for well over a month, and this proposed research presents a novel approach towards understanding the fundamentals of how this coupling occurs. Specifically, we are interested in: 1) how predictable are anomalies in the stratospheric circulation? 2) why do only some stratospheric events modify surface weather? and 3) what is the mechanism whereby stratospheric anomalies reach the surface? While this last question may appear academic, several studies indicate that stratosphere-troposphere coupling drives the midlatitude tropospheric response to climate change; therefore, a clearer understanding of the mechanisms will aid in the interpretation of the upcoming changes in the surface climate.

I propose a multi-pronged effort aimed at addressing these questions and improving monthly forecasting. First, carefully designed modelling experiments using a novel modelling framework will be used to clarify how, and under what conditions, stratospheric variability couples to tropospheric variability. Second, novel linkages between variability external to the stratospheric polar vortex and the stratospheric polar vortex will be pursued, thus improving our ability to forecast polar vortex variability itself. To these ends, my group will develop 1) an analytic model for Rossby wave propagation on the sphere, and 2) a simplified general circulation model, which captures the essential processes underlying stratosphere-troposphere coupling. By combining output from the new models, observational data, and output from comprehensive climate models, the connections between the stratosphere and surface climate will be elucidated.

 Publications

year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2017 William J. M. Seviour, Darryn W. Waugh, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Gustavo J. P. Correa, Chaim I. Garfinkel
Robustness of the Simulated Tropospheric Response to Ozone Depletion
published pages: 2577-2585, ISSN: 0894-8755, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0817.1
Journal of Climate 30/7 2019-06-19
2017 Chen Schwartz, Chaim I. Garfinkel
Relative roles of the MJO and stratospheric variability in North Atlantic and European winter climate
published pages: 4184-4201, ISSN: 2169-897X, DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025829
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122/8 2019-06-19
2017 C. I. Garfinkel, C. Schwartz
MJO-Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models
published pages: 10,054-10,062, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074470
Geophysical Research Letters 44/19 2019-06-19
2017 Chaim I. Garfinkel, Itzhak Fouxon, Ofer Shamir, Nathan Paldor
Classification of eastward propagating waves on the spherical Earth
published pages: 1554-1564, ISSN: 0035-9009, DOI: 10.1002/qj.3025
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143/704 2019-06-19
2019 Jian Rao, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Rongcai Ren
Modulation of the Northern Winter Stratospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnection by the PDO
published pages: , ISSN: 0894-8755, DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0087.1
Journal of Climate 2019-09-04
2019 Israel Weinberger, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ian P. White, Luke D. Oman
The salience of nonlinearities in the boreal winter response to ENSO: Arctic stratosphere and Europe
published pages: , ISSN: 0930-7575, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04805-1
Climate Dynamics 2019-09-04
2017 Chaim I Garfinkel
Might stratospheric variability lead to improved predictability of ENSO events?
published pages: 31001, ISSN: 1748-9326, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa60a4
Environmental Research Letters 12/3 2019-06-19
2017 Chaim I. Garfinkel, Seok-Woo Son, Kanghyun Song, Valentina Aquila, Luke D. Oman
Stratospheric variability contributed to and sustained the recent hiatus in Eurasian winter warming
published pages: 374-382, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072035
Geophysical Research Letters 44/1 2019-06-19
2019 Chaim I. Garfinkel, Chen Schwartz, Amy H. Butler, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Seok‐Woo Son, Ian P. White
Weakening of the teleconnection from El Niño‐Southern Oscillation to the Arctic stratosphere over the past few decades: What can be learned from subseasonal forecast models?
published pages: , ISSN: 2169-897X, DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029961
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124 2019-09-04
2017 N. Calvo, M. Iza, M. M. Hurwitz, E. Manzini, C. Peña-Ortiz, A. H. Butler, C. Cagnazzo, S. Ineson, C. I. Garfinkel
Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Pathway of Different El Niño Flavors in Stratosphere-Resolving CMIP5 Models
published pages: 4351-4371, ISSN: 0894-8755, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0132.1
Journal of Climate 30/12 2019-06-19
2017 Chaim I. Garfinkel, Valentina Aquila, Darryn W. Waugh, Luke D. Oman
Time-varying changes in the simulated structure of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation
published pages: 1313-1327, ISSN: 1680-7324, DOI: 10.5194/acp-17-1313-2017
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17/2 2019-06-19
2017 Paul D. Williams, M. Joan Alexander, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Amy H. Butler, Huw C. Davies, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Yochanan Kushnir, Todd P. Lane, Julie K. Lundquist, Olivia Martius, Ryan N. Maue, W. Richard Peltier, Kaoru Sato, Adam A. Scaife, Chidong Zhang
A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades
published pages: 11,201-11,211, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL075483
Geophysical Research Letters 44/21 2019-06-19
2018 Chaim I. Garfinkel, Amit Gordon, Luke D. Oman, Feng Li, Sean Davis, Steven Pawson
Nonlinear response of tropical lower-stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO
published pages: 4597-4615, ISSN: 1680-7324, DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18/7 2019-05-27
2019 Ian White, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Edwin P. Gerber, Martin Jucker, Valentina Aquila, Luke D. Oman
The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors
published pages: 85-108, ISSN: 0894-8755, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0053.1
Journal of Climate 32/1 2019-05-14
2018 Nathan Paldor, Itzhak Fouxon, Ofer Shamir, Chaim I. Garfinkel
The mixed Rossby-gravity wave on the spherical Earth
published pages: 1820-1830, ISSN: 0035-9009, DOI: 10.1002/qj.3354
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 144/715 2019-05-14

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