BIRD POPULATIONS

Climate-induced phenological change and its consequences for bird populations

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'Migratory birds have during the last decades advanced their phenology, i.e. the timing of events such as migration and breeding, as a response to climate change. Species unable to adjust their phenology have shown declining populations. Understanding the mechanisms underlying this trend is necessary for predicting long term population dynamical consequences of climate change and taking possible conservational action. The proposed project aims at sorting out associations between phenology and changes in population size, and to bridge the gap between these two areas of research classically considered separately. Migratory birds provide an appropriate model system for this purpose due to their apparent phenological responsiveness, well known ecology and the large amounts of data available. More specifically, the aims are approached by i) developing models for quantifying phenological variation and resource mismatch, ii) linking phenology to density dependent population models, and iii) investigating properties of different scenarios by computer simulation. Standardized data from Nordic bird observatories and monitoring schemes will be used in collaboration with responsible institutions. The applicant possesses a unique combination of skills in advanced statistical modelling and natural history, including field experience from bird observatories. The work combines the applicant’s two strongest research topics: population dynamics and bird phenology. The project is carried out at the University of Oslo in an internationally acknowledged research group: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), chaired by Prof. Nils Chr. Stenseth. The broad expertise of the CEES and its excellent track record ensures a stimulating environment for carrying out successful research and acquiring complementary skills necessary for career development. The project is likely to provide new insight and stronger tools for assessing climate effects in ecological dynamics.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

Birds migrate and breed in response to changes in their local climate and seasonal transitions prompt different biological events, so-called phenology.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

Recent changes in weather patterns have resulted in modifications in migratory birds' phenology and species not adjusting their phenology to climate change have declined in population numbers. This trend is an important research focus as better understanding the underlying mechanisms will enable long-term predictions of the impacts of climate change on bird populations and support necessary conservation actions.

Researchers studied links between phenology and population dynamics through the EU-funded project 'Climate-induced phenological change and its consequences for bird populations' (BIRD POPULATIONS). At the same time, they worked to align these two research areas which, up until this initiative, were traditionally studied as separate topics.

To realise project goals, the team selected migratory birds as a model system as their phenological responsiveness is fairly easy to study. They also have a well-known ecology and there are large amounts of relevant data readily available.

Initially, specific research objectives covered developing models for quantifying phenological variation, linking phenology and population models, and investigating different climate change scenarios using computer simulations. Researchers analysed standardised data from Nordic bird observatories as well as long-term monitoring schemes.

BIRD POPULATIONS has shown that shifts in wintering ranges due to climate change have positively impacted waterbird populations in Finland. This has also led to changes in their phenology.

The study does not imply direct causal effects, but rather the benefits of observing both changes in number and natural biological events. In fact, the main links between phenology and population growth can be considered a result of shifts in seasonal ranges or of variable survival.

Progress made during the BIRD POPULATIONS project sets the stage for future research. Researchers have published one article and work on another four is ongoing.

The phenological models advanced the ongoing papers should prove useful for researchers and practitioners in the field of applied ecology.