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FLARECAST

Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting

Total Cost €

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EC-Contrib. €

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Partnership

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Project "FLARECAST" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.

Coordinator
ACADEMY OF ATHENS 

Organization address
address: Panepistimiou Ave. 28
city: ATHENS
postcode: 10679
website: www.academyofathens.gr

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country Greece [EL]
 Project website http://flarecast.eu/
 Total cost 2˙416˙651 €
 EC max contribution 2˙416˙651 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.2.1.6. (INDUSTRIAL LEADERSHIP - Leadership in enabling and industrial technologies – Space)
 Code Call H2020-PROTEC-2014
 Funding Scheme RIA
 Starting year 2015
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2015-01-01   to  2017-12-31

 Partnership

Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    ACADEMY OF ATHENS EL (ATHENS) coordinator 371˙063.00
2    FACHHOCHSCHULE NORDWESTSCHWEIZ CH (WINDISCH) participant 569˙162.00
3    THE PROVOST, FELLOWS, FOUNDATION SCHOLARS & THE OTHER MEMBERS OF BOARD OF THE COLLEGE OF THE HOLY & UNDIVIDED TRINITY OF QUEEN ELIZABETH NEAR DUBLIN IE (DUBLIN) participant 407˙731.00
4    UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI GENOVA IT (GENOVA) participant 241˙375.00
5    UNIVERSITE PARIS-SUD FR (ORSAY CEDEX) participant 224˙583.00
6    CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE CNRS FR (PARIS) participant 211˙000.00
7    MET OFFICE UK (EXETER) participant 136˙908.00
8    CONSIGLIO NAZIONALE DELLE RICERCHE IT (ROMA) participant 135˙500.00
9    UNIVERSITY OF NORTHUMBRIA AT NEWCASTLE UK (NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE) participant 119˙326.00

Map

 Project objective

Space weather can have detrimental, and in some cases catastrophic, effects upon a multitude of technologies on which we depend as part our daily lives. Adverse space weather is now known to result from solar flares and coronal mass ejections released from the turbulent and highly complex magnetic fields of active regions. Understanding how active region magnetic fields evolve and produce these events is therefore of fundamental importance to developing accurate and reliable space-weather monitoring and forecasting capabilities.

We therefore propose to develop an advanced flare prediction system (Flare Likelihood And Region Eruption Forecasting; FLARECAST) that is based on automatically extracted physical properties of active regions coupled with state-of-the-art flare prediction methods and validated using the most appropriate forecast verification measures.

Active region properties, such as area, magnetic flux, shear, magnetic complexity, helicity and proxies for magnetic energy, will be extracted from solar magnetogram and white-light images in near-realtime using advanced image-processing techniques. Once active region properties have been extracted, they will be correlated with solar flare activity and used to optimize prediction algorithms based on statistical, unsupervised clustering and supervised learning methods. This will enable us to validate our image processing and flare prediction algorithms before launching a near-realtime flare forecasting service, the first of its kind in the world.

FLARECAST will therefore form the basis of the first quantitative, physically motivated and autonomous active region monitoring and flare forecasting system, which will be of use to space-weather researchers and forecasters in Europe and around the globe.

 Deliverables

List of deliverables.
Addition of plug-in system Documents, reports 2019-05-30 12:14:22
Press and media release (year 3) Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-05-30 12:14:32
Finalised framework Documents, reports 2019-05-30 12:14:09
Updated prediction database schema Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes 2019-05-30 12:14:09
Initial prediction database schema Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes 2019-05-30 12:14:33
Finalised flare prediction algorithms Documents, reports 2019-05-30 12:14:16
Addition of new framework functionality (external data ingestion, user management, validation) Documents, reports 2019-05-30 12:14:25
Finalized outreach material and web site (year 3) Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-03-06 12:32:50
Finalised active region property extraction algorithms, metadata, documentation Documents, reports 2019-03-06 12:32:47
Organization of first Stakeholders Workshop Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-03-06 12:32:53
Forecast verification software Documents, reports 2019-03-06 12:32:45
Finalised project web site Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-03-06 12:32:49
Report on findings and suggestions for future efforts in solar eruption prediction Documents, reports 2019-03-06 12:32:49
Forecast verification error assessment software Documents, reports 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Organization of second Stakeholders Workshop Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Report on next generation methods for active region property extraction and flare prediction Documents, reports 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Education and public outreach material (year 1) Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Press and media release (year 1) Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Press and media release (year 2) Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Improved requirements for flare association and forecasting time windows and latency Documents, reports 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Initial education and public outreach web site content Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Data monitoring software Documents, reports 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Plan for the exploitation and dissemination of the results Documents, reports 2019-01-09 15:31:33
Catalogued active region property ingestion algorithm and respective flare association Documents, reports 2019-03-01 10:28:35
Project web site established Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2019-03-01 10:28:41
Software framework updated from HESPE functionality Documents, reports 2019-05-30 11:27:47
Initial data management plan Open Research Data Pilot 2019-02-12 11:22:28

Take a look to the deliverables list in detail:  detailed list of FLARECAST deliverables.

 Publications

year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2018 Kostas Florios, Ioannis Kontogiannis, Sung-Hong Park, Jordan A. Guerra, Federico Benvenuto, D. Shaun Bloomfield, Manolis K. Georgoulis
Forecasting Solar Flares Using Magnetogram-based Predictors and Machine Learning
published pages: , ISSN: 0038-0938, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-018-1250-4
Solar Physics 293/2 2019-05-29
2017 Ioannis Kontogiannis, Manolis K. Georgoulis, Sung-Hong Park, Jordan A. Guerra
Non-neutralized Electric Currents in Solar Active Regions and Flare Productivity
published pages: , ISSN: 0038-0938, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-017-1185-1
Solar Physics 292/11 2019-05-29
2016 G. Barnes, K. D. Leka, C. J. Schrijver, T. Colak, R. Qahwaji, O. W. Ashamari, Y. Yuan, J. Zhang, R. T. J. McAteer, D. S. Bloomfield, P. A. Higgins, P. T. Gallagher, D. A. Falconer, M. K. Georgoulis, M. S. Wheatland, C. Balch, T. Dunn, E. L. Wagner
A COMPARISON OF FLARE FORECASTING METHODS. I. RESULTS FROM THE “ALL-CLEAR” WORKSHOP
published pages: 89, ISSN: 1538-4357, DOI: 10.3847/0004-637X/829/2/89
The Astrophysical Journal 829/2 2019-05-29
2018 J. A. Guerra, S.-H. Park, P. T. Gallagher, I. Kontogiannis, M. K. Georgoulis, D. S. Bloomfield
Active Region Photospheric Magnetic Properties Derived from Line-of-Sight and Radial Fields
published pages: , ISSN: 0038-0938, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-017-1231-z
Solar Physics 293/1 2019-05-29
2017 Chloé Guennou, Etienne Pariat, James E. Leake, Nicole Vilmer
Testing predictors of eruptivity using parametric flux emergence simulations
published pages: A17, ISSN: 2115-7251, DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2017015
Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate 7 2019-05-29
2017 M. A. Sharpe, S. A. Murray
Verification of Space Weather Forecasts Issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre
published pages: 1383-1395, ISSN: 1542-7390, DOI: 10.1002/2017SW001683
Space Weather 15/10 2019-05-29
2018 Federico Benvenuto, Michele Piana, Cristina Campi, Anna Maria Massone
A Hybrid Supervised/Unsupervised Machine Learning Approach to Solar Flare Prediction
published pages: 90, ISSN: 1538-4357, DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/aaa23c
The Astrophysical Journal 853/1 2019-05-29
2016 Aoife E. McCloskey, Peter T. Gallagher, D. Shaun Bloomfield
Flaring Rates and the Evolution of Sunspot Group McIntosh Classifications
published pages: 1711-1738, ISSN: 0038-0938, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-016-0933-y
Solar Physics 291/6 2019-05-29
2018 Anna Maria Massone, Michele Piana & the FLARECAST Consortium
Machine Learning for Solar Flare Forecasting
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
2019-05-29
2017 E. Pariat, J. E. Leake, G. Valori, M. G. Linton, F. P. Zuccarello, K. Dalmasse
Relative magnetic helicity as a diagnostic of solar eruptivity
published pages: A125, ISSN: 0004-6361, DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201630043
Astronomy & Astrophysics 601 2019-05-29
2017 S. A. Murray, S. Bingham, M. Sharpe, D. R. Jackson
Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre
published pages: 577-588, ISSN: 1542-7390, DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001579
Space Weather 15/4 2019-05-29

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