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Households’ Consumption during the Great Recession: A structural analysis on the role of expectations

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






Project "CONSCRISIS" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
city: London
postcode: WC1E 6BT

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country United Kingdom [UK]
 Project website
 Total cost 183˙454 €
 EC max contribution 183˙454 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.3.2. (Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility)
 Code Call H2020-MSCA-IF-2014
 Funding Scheme MSCA-IF-EF-ST
 Starting year 2015
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2015-11-01   to  2017-10-31


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON UK (London) coordinator 183˙454.00


 Project objective

A striking feature of the Great Recession is the fall in households’ expenditure and its slow recovery. The extraordinary duration of this contraction with respect to previous recessions stimulated the interest of scholars and policymakers in the analysis of its causes. In the early part of the crisis it is partly explained by a sudden crash in asset values. More recently, the decline in consumer confidence in several European countries is likely to have played a major role. This project aims to explore which factors explain why consumption has moved following the crisis and to assess the relevance of downwards revisions of income expectations. Households who experience a deep and prolonged period of economic downturn, such as the Great Recession, may become increasingly convinced about the permanence of income shocks over time. Gradual downwards revisions of expectations about permanent income are likely to lead to a series of downwards adjustments in consumption spending. This project will exploit a structural approach that will enable me to investigate the relevance for consumption of this process of adjustment. The contribution of this proposal is threefold. First, it improves the understanding of households’ consumption choices by analysing the role of income expectations. Second, it adds to the literature that investigates the determinants of the recession. The third contribution is methodological. An integral part of the project will be the elaboration and numerical solution of a lifecycle consumption-savings model with the novel feature that agents cannot (fully) observe the nature of the income shock and, thus, need time to learn about its permanence. The relevance of this proposal in a European perspective is enhanced by the cross-country perspective of the empirical analysis. The outstanding experts in Econometrics, Economics of Consumption and, more precisely, in the use of structural models, make UCL the perfect environment to carry out this project.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2017 Serena Trucchi, Elsa Fornero and Mariacristina Rossi
Retirement rigidities and the gap between effective and desired labour supply by older workers
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
CeRP Working Paper 174/17 2019-06-17
2017 Renata Bottazzi, Serena Trucchi, Matthew Wakefield
Labour supply responses to financial wealth shocks: evidence from Italy
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
IFS Working Papers IFS WP 17/29 2019-06-17
2017 Renata Bottazzi, Serena Trucchi, Matthew Wakefield
Consumption responses to a large shock to financial wealth: evidence from Italy
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
University of Essex, Department of Economics, Economics Discussion Papers 2019-06-17
2017 Agnes Kovacs, Concetta Rondinelli and Serena Trucchi
Permanent versus transitory income shocks over the business cycle
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
2016 Mariacristina Rossi, Serena Trucchi
Liquidity constraints and labor supply
published pages: 176-193, ISSN: 0014-2921, DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.05.001
European Economic Review 87 2019-06-17

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