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TBornotTB SIGNED

What is Tuberculosis? Challenging the Current Paradigm of Tuberculosis Natural History using Mathematical Modelling Techniques

Total Cost €

EC-Contrib. €

Partnership

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TBornotTB project word cloud

Explore the words cloud of the TBornotTB project. It provides you a very rough idea of what is the project "TBornotTB" about.

inaccuracy epidemiology prevailing model mostly structure diagnostic first explore repression projections shift stubbornly questions substantially science move collating natural death socio instead award longer caused understand level basic behavior elusive person insights latent billion initial dynamic time shown empirical mathematical strategies flexibility immune models overly indicators unprecedented interplay critical disease regression exploring stage incorporating reflect what directional capture human erc made suggests projected techniques individuals mean data drivers tuberculosis stages deaths hypothesis intensity intermediate implications economic paradigm tb population history infection settle paradigms parameterize biggest progression

Project "TBornotTB" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.

Coordinator	LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE ROYAL CHARTER Organization address address: KEPPEL STREET city: LONDON postcode: WC1E 7HT website: http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/ contact info title: n.a. name: n.a. surname: n.a. function: n.a. email: n.a. telephone: n.a. fax: n.a.
Coordinator Country	United Kingdom [UK]
Total cost	1˙499˙818 €
EC max contribution	1˙499˙818 € (100%)
Programme	1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
Code Call	ERC-2017-STG
Funding Scheme	ERC-STG
Starting year	2018
Duration (year-month-day)	from 2018-03-01 to 2023-02-28

Partnership

Take a look of project's partnership.

#	participants	country	role	EC contrib. [€]
1	LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE ROYAL CHARTER LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE ROYAL CHARTER Organization address address: KEPPEL STREET city: LONDON postcode: WC1E 7HT website: http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/ contact info title: n.a. name: n.a. surname: n.a. function: n.a. email: n.a. telephone: n.a. fax: n.a.	UK (LONDON)	coordinator	1˙499˙818.00

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Project objective

What is Tuberculosis (TB)? How does a person go from infection to disease, and what does this mean at the population level? For a disease that has caused over two billion deaths in human history, and is the biggest cause of death from an infection today, the natural history of TB remains stubbornly elusive. In this ERC award I will challenge current paradigms by exploring the implications of new empirical insights from basic science on our understanding of TB epidemiology and its control using mathematical modelling techniques.

My hypothesis is that the prevailing paradigm of TB natural history is overly simple, and one of the key drivers of inaccuracy in projections made by mathematical models thus far. Current models of disease typically account for two distinct stages of infection and disease, with mostly one-directional progression between them. Instead, data has shown that individuals experience a range of stages of disease intensity. Moreover, over time individuals can move between stages through a dynamic interplay between immune induced repression and disease progression.

In this ERC award I will first focus on collating the best available data to parameterize a new mathematical model of TB with unprecedented flexibility to capture the required trends. I will settle on the best model structure and understand its behavior. In the second stage, I will use the model to explore critical questions in two areas of TB research that require the detail of the new paradigm: the challenge of addressing latent tuberculosis infection; and incorporating the impact of changes in socio-economic indicators on TB trends.

The consequences of such a paradigm shift to better reflect new insights from basic science and epidemiology are important. Initial modelling of intermediate disease states and the potential for progression and regression suggests that the projected impact of diagnostic strategies is substantially reduced, both in the immediate and longer-term.

Publications

List of publications.
year	authors and title	journal	last update
2019	Gwenan M Knight, C Finn McQuaid, Peter J Dodd, Rein M G J Houben Global burden of latent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: trends and estimates based on mathematical modelling published pages: 903-912, ISSN: 1473-3099, DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(19)30307-x	The Lancet Infectious Diseases 19/8	2019-09-09
2018	Hanif Esmail, Peter J Dodd, Rein M G J Houben Tuberculosis transmission during the subclinical period: could unrelated cough play a part? published pages: 244-246, ISSN: 2213-2600, DOI: 10.1016/s2213-2600(18)30105-x	The Lancet Respiratory Medicine 6/4	2019-09-09
2018	James M Trauer, Peter J Dodd, M Gabriela M Gomes, Gabriela B Gomez, Rein M G J Houben, Emma S McBryde, Yayehirad A Melsew, Nicolas A Menzies, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Sourya Shrestha, David W Dowdy The Importance of Heterogeneity to the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis published pages: 159-166, ISSN: 1058-4838, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciy938	Clinical Infectious Diseases 69/1	2019-09-09
2018	Katherine C. Horton, Richard G. White, Rein M.G.J. Houben Systematic neglect of men as a key population in tuberculosis published pages: 249-253, ISSN: 1472-9792, DOI: 10.1016/j.tube.2018.09.006	Tuberculosis 113	2019-09-09
2019	Rein M G J Houben, Hanif Esmail, Jon C Emery, Louis R Joslyn, C Finn McQuaid, Nicolas A Menzies, JoaquÃn Sanz, Sourya Shrestha, Richard G White, Chongguang Yang, Frank Cobelens Spotting the old foeâ€”revisiting the case definition for TB published pages: 199-201, ISSN: 2213-2600, DOI: 10.1016/s2213-2600(19)30038-4	The Lancet Respiratory Medicine 7/3	2019-09-09
2018	Rein M G J Houben, Marek Lalli, Katharina Kranzer, Nick A Menzies, Samuel G Schumacher, David W Dowdy What if They Donâ€™t Have Tuberculosis? The Consequences and Trade-offs Involved in False-positive Diagnoses of Tuberculosis published pages: 150-6, ISSN: 1058-4838, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciy544	Clinical Infectious Diseases	2019-09-09
2018	Daniel J Carter, Philippe Glaziou, Knut LÃ¶nnroth, Andrew Siroka, Katherine Floyd, Diana Weil, Mario Raviglione, Rein M G J Houben, Delia Boccia The impact of social protection and poverty elimination on global tuberculosis incidence: a statistical modelling analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 1 published pages: e514-e522, ISSN: 2214-109X, DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(18)30195-5	The Lancet Global Health 6/5	2019-09-09
2019	Katie D Dale, James M Trauer, Peter J Dodd, Rein M G J Houben, Justin T Denholm Estimating Long-term Tuberculosis Reactivation Rates in Australian Migrants published pages: , ISSN: 1058-4838, DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz569	Clinical Infectious Diseases	2019-09-09

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The information about "TBORNOTTB" are provided by the European Opendata Portal: CORDIS opendata.