FLUMODCONT

Modelling the spread of pandemic influenza and strategies for its containment and mitigation

Coordinatore	UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TRENTO    more  Organization address address: VIA CALEPINA 14 city: TRENTO postcode: 38122 contact info Titolo: Prof. Nome: Raul Paolo Cognome: Serapioni Email: send email Telefono: +39 0461 881625 Fax: +39 0461 881624
Nazionalità Coordinatore	Italy [IT]
Totale costo	2˙880˙344 €
EC contributo	2˙191˙546 €
Programma	FP7-HEALTH Specific Programme "Cooperation": Health
Code Call	FP7-HEALTH-2007-A
Funding Scheme	CP-FP
Anno di inizio	2008
Periodo (anno-mese-giorno)	2008-06-01   -   2011-05-31

 Partecipanti

#	participant	country	role	EC contrib. [€]
1	UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TRENTO  Organization address address: VIA CALEPINA 14 city: TRENTO postcode: 38122 contact info Titolo: Prof. Nome: Raul Paolo Cognome: Serapioni Email: send email Telefono: +39 0461 881625 Fax: +39 0461 881624	IT (TRENTO)	coordinator	0.00
2	CLALIT HEALTH SERVICES  Organization address address: ARLOZOROV STREET 101 city: TEL AVIV postcode: 62098 contact info Titolo: Ms. Nome: Ofra Cognome: Gibli Email: send email Telefono: -6922460 Fax: -6922647	IL (TEL AVIV)	participant	0.00
3	FONDAZIONE BRUNO KESSLER  Organization address address: VIA SANTA CROCE 77 city: TRENTO postcode: 38122 contact info Titolo: Mr. Nome: Umberto Cognome: Silvestri Email: send email Telefono: +39 0461 314375 Fax: +39 0461 302040	IT (TRENTO)	participant	0.00
4	HEALTH PROTECTION AGENCY HPA  Organization address address: Central Office - 7th Floor, Holborn Gate - High Holborn 330 city: LONDON postcode: WC1V 7PP contact info Titolo: Dr. Nome: Stephen Andrew Cognome: Leach Email: send email Telefono: +44 1980 612491 Fax: +44 1980 619924	UK (LONDON)	participant	0.00
5	IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE  Organization address address: SOUTH KENSINGTON CAMPUS EXHIBITION ROAD city: LONDON postcode: SW7 2AZ contact info Titolo: Dr. Nome: Michael Cognome: Robinson Email: send email Telefono: +44 207 594 3866 Fax: +44 207 594 3868	UK (LONDON)	participant	0.00
6	INSTITUTUL DE SANATATE PUBLICA  Organization address address: Str Dr Leonte nr 1-3 city: BUCURESTI postcode: 76256 contact info Titolo: Ms. Nome: Steluta Cognome: Harabagiu Email: send email Telefono: +4021 3183620 Fax: +4021 3123426	RO (BUCURESTI)	participant	0.00
7	ISTITUTO SUPERIORE DI SANITA  Organization address address: Viale Regina Elena 299 city: ROMA postcode: 161 contact info Titolo: Ms. Nome: Rosa Maria Cognome: Martoccia Email: send email Telefono: 0039 0649906057 Fax: 0039 0649903007	IT (ROMA)	participant	0.00
8	RIJKSINSTITUUT VOOR VOLKSGEZONDHEIDEN MILIEU*NATIONAL INSTITUTEFOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENTEN  Organization address address: Antonie Van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9 city: BILTHOVEN postcode: 3721 MA contact info Titolo: Ms. Nome: Marjon Cognome: Straver Email: send email Telefono: +31 30 275 7547 Fax: +31 30 275 4486	NL (BILTHOVEN)	participant	0.00
9	TERVEYDEN JA HYVINVOINNIN LAITOS  Organization address address: MANNERHEIMINTIE 166 city: HELSINKI postcode: 300 contact info Titolo: Dr. Nome: Jaakko Cognome: Penttinen Email: send email Telefono: +358-9-4744 8203 Fax: +358-9-4744 8552	FI (HELSINKI)	participant	0.00
10	UNIVERSITA COMMERCIALE LUIGI BOCCONI  Organization address address: Via Sarfatti 25 city: MILANO postcode: 20136 contact info Titolo: Dr. Nome: Simona Cognome: Gagino Email: send email Telefono: +39 0258365553 Fax: +39 0258365634	IT (MILANO)	participant	0.00
11	UNIVERSITE PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE - PARIS 6  Organization address address: Place Jussieu 4 city: PARIS postcode: 75252 contact info Titolo: Dr. Nome: Stéphanie Cognome: Rossard Email: send email Telefono: +33 144279712 Fax: +33 144277467	FR (PARIS)	participant	0.00

Mappa

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'The public heath threat posed by novel strains of influenza A gaining transmissibility in people and causing a human pandemic has been recognised as potentially catastrophic, especially since the emergence and global spread of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus. Several mathematical models have been developed to evaluate patterns of spatio-temporal spread of infection, and the effectiveness of various containment strategies. However, these require significant improvements, elaboration, and application, in order to better inform EU-wide policy and responses. Key to the determination of the spatio-temporal patterns of pandemic influenza are data on contact patterns, such as those that are being acquired by the EU projects INFTRANS and POLYMOD. Building on these projects, we will collect detailed data on population structure, workplace sizes, and population movement; while also doing new surveys focused on identifying potential behavioral super-spreaders, and attitudes towards, and potential behavioural changes during, a pandemic. A suite of mathematical models, ranging from deterministic and stochastic differential equations to individual-based microsimulations, will be developed and integrated; taking into account all of the new data that is acquired above. The models will be validated against data on past pandemics and on the dynamics of seasonal and endemic infectious diseases. The effectiveness of control/treatment strategies, including measures to increase social distance (school and workplaces closure, travel reductions), quarantine, antiviral prophylaxis and mass or targeted vaccination, which also consider contact tracing protocols, will be evaluated through these models. An essential ingredient to the usefulness of detailed models is the possibility of updating them on the basis of new information or on the patterns of an emerging epidemic; hence a specific effort will be devoted to develop modular and efficient algorithms allowing for real-time analysis.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

Planning ahead in terms of threatening infections such as influenza was the aim of the European consortium working on the Flumodcont project. By modelling the spread of an influenza pandemic, scientists believed they could determine the expected course of infection and design containment strategies.