AUGUR

Challenges for Europe in the world of 2030

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 Obiettivo del progetto (Objective)

'Our challenge is to capture, within a set of scenarios, the characteristics and implications of a variety of patterns that may occur in 2030 in all domains, be it political, economic, social, environmental or technological in Europe and in the world. The project wants to take stock of long term trends identified in demography, environmental changes as well as to feature some of the effects of likely changes in technology and behaviours, but it also wants to take into account the important institutional transformations that could come out of the major crisis that the world economy is confronted with. To reach this ambitious objective, in a comprehensive and consistent way, we plan to combine in a systematic way three types of approaches. One approach is to use macro models, ensuring that the main interdependencies are taken into account. As one macro model cannot cover all the domains under view, macro models we use are made to interact in ways which are facilitated, if not intermediated by the other two approaches. The second approach takes an institutional perspective whereby the main mechanisms of coordination, setting both the rules of behaviours but also the means to create new modes of coordination, are investigated and the various interests at stake accounted for. This political economy of institutions and institutional changes applies at both national and international levels. The present crisis, that burst in the most developed economies and is affecting all economies throughout the world, leads us to put a specific emphasis on forthcoming and potential institutional changes . The third approach stems from the by now long experience of foresight studies which proceed by asserting visions, based on specific thorough transformations impacting on all domains. This qualitative approach is informed and framed by the two other approaches.'

Introduzione (Teaser)

The EU economy's future relies on the implications of EU policy and outcomes of global economic relations. Researchers presented European and international scenarios for governance to determine the issues shaping Europe's future in the decades ahead.

Descrizione progetto (Article)

During the next two decades, the EU and other major economies will need to cooperate to ensure global economic growth while balancing employment and income between countries.

Backed by EU funding, the project 'Challenges for Europe in the world of 2030' (http://www.augurproject.eu (AUGUR)) mainly focused on how four different international governance contexts may affect Europe in 2030. Project activities covered political, economic, social, environmental and technological spheres and used a macro model of the world regions to calibrate its scenarios.

The first scenario foresaw economic stagnation that impedes technological and research and development (R&D) capacity, produces scaled-down EU programmes, deters global talent, encourages human capital flight and increases global outsourcing. The second predicted the adverse effects of America's and China's interventionist policies on the EU and its relations with neighbouring countries. Europe's role as a global actor will be greatly diminished. Both powers will challenge its established industrial strengths. R&D and educational programmes will fail, leading to the loss of economies of scale and scope.

In the third scenario, Europe is an area of solid regional integration. It propels regionalist trade and production integration, and engages in more concentrated R&D cooperation, as well as novel and efficient programmes. It yields influence in international policymaking and regulatory structures, and becomes relevant in energy supply and security.

The final scenario envisages a federal European system in a more cooperative world. Global governance structures will be reformed and consensus will be reached on agenda issues in order to face major global challenges and in the first place the environmental one. Europe will be tasked with solving political economy issues at all levels to gain a stronghold on the global bargaining scene. Findings revealed that the last two scenarios produced considerable improvements in economic performance.

AUGUR projected what could be achieved in 2030 if countries work together to address global challenges. National, regional and global governments need to lay down new terms of cooperation and recognise how such alliances will affect productivity growth and employment, as well as associated long-term economic and societal issues.