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Individual decisions and macroeconomic robustness

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






Project "INDIMACRO" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
address: VIA SARFATTI 25
city: MILANO
postcode: 20136

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country Italy [IT]
 Project website
 Total cost 1˙394˙716 €
 EC max contribution 1˙394˙716 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2014-ADG
 Funding Scheme ERC-ADG
 Starting year 2015
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2015-10-01   to  2020-09-30


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 


 Project objective

Model uncertainty is a key issue and an active research area in Macro-Finance. Its study, pioneered by Hansen and Sargent, substantially improves the treatment of uncertainty in Macro-Finance models and the robustness of their conclusions. The interest of central banks on problems related to model uncertainty is a clear signal of the relevance of this novel concept and the related theoretical framework. Model uncertainty in Macro-Finance and ambiguity in Decision Theory share a common insight that inspires empirical and theoretical developments: the agents’ ignorance about the “true” probabilistic model that governs the uncertain environments they face. With few exceptions, decision theorists have studied ambiguity mostly in static contexts that are insufficient for the analysis of the steady state and dynamic decision problems that characterize Macro-Finance. Hence, this field keeps relying on decision models that cannot cope with model uncertainty. Our research agenda aims to create a unified Macro-Finance and Decision Theory framework for the study of model uncertainty, which broadens the scope of Decision Theory and provides novel foundations for a common framework. We will build new steady state and dynamic decision models that are powerful enough for a general analysis of model uncertainty in Macro-Finance. We will also develop a self-confirming equilibrium analysis, which by leaving room for agents to have “wrong” views about models, can much more naturally confront agents with model uncertainty than the rational expectations approach. Our project will foster cross-fertilization and lead to a deeper understanding of the empirical and theoretical effects of uncertainty in Macro-Finance phenomena. Because model uncertainty is pervasive (e.g., which climate model to use? which is the correct production function for human capital?), we expect that our theoretical findings will push the research frontier and the analysis of the role of uncertainty in other fields.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2018 Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, Alfio Giarlotta, Salvatore Greco, Fabio Maccheroni, Massimo Marinacci
Rational preference and rationalizable choice
published pages: , ISSN: 0938-2259, DOI: 10.1007/s00199-018-1157-1
Economic Theory 2020-01-24
2018 Massimo Marinacci, Federico Severino
Weak time-derivatives and no-arbitrage pricing
published pages: 1007-1036, ISSN: 0949-2984, DOI: 10.1007/s00780-018-0371-9
Finance and Stochastics 22/4 2020-01-24
2019 S. Cerreia-Vioglio, F. Maccheroni, M. Marinacci
Orthogonal decompositions in Hilbert A-modules
published pages: 846-875, ISSN: 0022-247X, DOI: 10.1016/j.jmaa.2018.10.035
Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 470/2 2020-01-24

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