Opendata, web and dolomites


Forecasting the recurrence rate of volcanic eruptions

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






Project "FEVER" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
city: GENEVE
postcode: 1211

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country Switzerland [CH]
 Project website
 Total cost 1˙458˙192 €
 EC max contribution 1˙458˙192 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2015-STG
 Funding Scheme ERC-STG
 Starting year 2016
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2016-04-01   to  2021-03-31


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    UNIVERSITE DE GENEVE CH (GENEVE) coordinator 1˙458˙192.00


 Project objective

Volcanic eruptions occur with a frequency that is inversely proportional to their magnitude. Datasets of natural volcanic events, currently used to determine the recurrence rate of volcanic eruptions are intrinsically biased. Combining physical modelling of processes with detailed statistical analysis has been demonstrated essential for assessing reliably the recurrence rate of natural hazards, such as floods and earthquakes. This would be the first attempt to apply a similar, integrated approach to explosive volcanic eruptions.

The high-gain final target of FEVER is to produce a physically based statistical model able to ForEcast the recurrence rate of Volcanic Eruptions both at regional and global scale. This is the first project of this kind and consequently involves a significant risk. Because 500 million people live in proximity of volcanoes and eruptions have a significant social and economical impact, forecasting the recurrence rate of volcanic eruption remains a great challenge in Science.

This project builds on two main directions of my research: a) Thermo-mechanical and statistical modelling targeting the identification of the main physical factors controlling the recurrence rate of volcanic eruptions. We showed that the flux of magma from depth directly controls the magnitude of the largest possible eruptions. Thus, b) we developed a novel method to determine such magma fluxes. These two lines of research combine perfectly in FEVER and will be integrated to answer questions such as: What is the probability of an eruption similar to the Tambora 1815 to occur in the next 100 years on Earth or in Europe? What is the largest physically possible eruption that can occur in Europe? The high-gain target of FEVER is to mitigate the impact of volcanic eruptions on our society, by producing research of interest for governmental agencies dealing with location of strategic infrastructures, and for businesses such as aviation.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2020 Sheldrake T. Caricchi L. Scutari M.
Tectonic controls on global variations of large-magnitude explosive eruptions in volcanic arcs
published pages: , ISSN: 2296-6463, DOI: 10.3389/feart.2020.00127
Frontiers in Earth Science 2020-04-15
2019 Gregor Weber, José Luis Arce, Alexey Ulianov, Luca Caricchi
A Recurrent Magmatic Pattern on Observable Timescales Prior to Plinian Eruptions From Nevado de Toluca (Mexico)
published pages: , ISSN: 2169-9313, DOI: 10.1029/2019jb017640
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 2019-11-22
2018 L. C. Probst, T. E. Sheldrake, M. J. Gander, G. Wallace, G. Simpson, L. Caricchi
A cross correlation method for chemical profiles in minerals, with an application to zircons of the Kilgore Tuff (USA)
published pages: , ISSN: 0010-7999, DOI: 10.1007/s00410-018-1448-3
Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology 173/3 2019-07-08
2017 Federico Galetto, Valerio Acocella, Luca Caricchi
Caldera resurgence driven by magma viscosity contrasts
published pages: , ISSN: 2041-1723, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01632-y
Nature Communications 8/1 2019-07-08
2018 Luca Caricchi, Tom E. Sheldrake, Jon Blundy
Modulation of magmatic processes by CO 2 flushing
published pages: 160-171, ISSN: 0012-821X, DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2018.03.042
Earth and Planetary Science Letters 491 2019-07-08
2016 Luca Caricchi, Guy Simpson, Urs Schaltegger
Estimates of Volume and Magma Input in Crustal Magmatic Systems from Zircon Geochronology: The Effect of Modeling Assumptions and System Variables
published pages: , ISSN: 2296-6463, DOI: 10.3389/feart.2016.00048
Frontiers in Earth Science 4 2019-07-08
2017 Cyril Chelle-Michou, Bertrand Rottier, Luca Caricchi, Guy Simpson
Tempo of magma degassing and the genesis of porphyry copper deposits
published pages: 40566, ISSN: 2045-2322, DOI: 10.1038/srep40566
Scientific Reports 7 2019-07-08
2016 Tom Sheldrake, Luca Caricchi
Regional variability in the frequency and magnitude of large explosive volcanic eruptions
published pages: G38372.1, ISSN: 0091-7613, DOI: 10.1130/G38372.1
Geology 2019-07-08
2017 Pietro Sternai, Luca Caricchi, Daniel Garcia-Castellanos, Laurent Jolivet, Tom E. Sheldrake, Sébastien Castelltort
Magmatic pulse driven by sea-level changes associated with the Messinian salinity crisis
published pages: , ISSN: 1752-0894, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO3032
Nature Geoscience 2019-07-08
2017 Massimo Chiaradia, Luca Caricchi
Stochastic modelling of deep magmatic controls on porphyry copper deposit endowment
published pages: 44523, ISSN: 2045-2322, DOI: 10.1038/srep44523
Scientific Reports 7 2019-07-08
2018 Luca Caricchi, Tom E. Sheldrake, Costanza Bonadonna
Does the Shape of a Volcano Reflect Its Personality?
published pages: , ISSN: 2296-6846, DOI: 10.3389/frym.2018.00010
Frontiers for Young Minds 6 2019-07-08
2019 Eva Hartung, Gregor Weber, Luca Caricchi
The role of H2O on the extraction of melt from crystallising magmas
published pages: 85-96, ISSN: 0012-821X, DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2018.12.010
Earth and Planetary Science Letters 508 2019-05-22

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