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Exploring the nucleation of large earthquakes: cascading and unpredictable or slowly driven and forecastable

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






 PRESEISMIC project word cloud

Explore the words cloud of the PRESEISMIC project. It provides you a very rough idea of what is the project "PRESEISMIC" about.

relationship    proportion    aseismic    algorithm    tsunami    combining    opportunity    continuous    multiple    relative    probabilistic    attempts    views    doomed    validation    near    contrasting    random    time    failures    estimates    slowly    missing    foreshocks    unified    accelerating    rupture    fault    deformation    extensive    mainshock    triggered    megathrust    catastrophic    understand    ground    monitor    estimation    automated    versus    events    how    data    chile    quantitative    genesis    capture    mechanisms    initiation    dynamic    cascades    first    assimilation    earthquakes    tool    predict    slip    observe    cascade    belong    usually    unpredictable    mechanics    unprecedented    active    global    preceded    physical    begin    forecast    types    datasets    models    contribution    procedure    seismic    nucleation    entirely    question    observations    rapid    slow    monitoring    independently    explosion    slips    motion    cluttering    geodetic    japan    answering    dependent    assimilating    faults    onset    detector   

Project "PRESEISMIC" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
address: RUE MICHEL ANGE 3
city: PARIS
postcode: 75794

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country France [FR]
 Total cost 1˙499˙545 €
 EC max contribution 1˙499˙545 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2018-STG
 Funding Scheme ERC-STG
 Starting year 2019
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2019-01-01   to  2023-12-31


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 


 Project objective

How do earthquakes begin? Answering this question is essential to understand fault mechanics but also to determine our ability to forecast large earthquakes. Although it is well established that some events are preceded by foreshocks, contrasting views have been proposed on the nucleation of earthquakes. Do these foreshocks belong to a cascade of random failures leading to the mainshock? Are they triggered by an aseismic nucleation phase in which the fault slips slowly before accelerating to a dynamic, catastrophic rupture? Will we ever be able to monitor and predict the slow onset of earthquakes or are we doomed to observe random, unpredictable cascades of events? We are currently missing a robust tool for quantitative estimation of the proportion of seismic versus aseismic slip during the rupture initiation, cluttering our attempts at understanding what physical mechanisms control the relationship between foreshocks and the onset of large earthquakes.

The current explosion of available near-fault ground-motion observations is an unprecedented opportunity to capture the genesis of earthquakes along active faults. I will develop an entirely new method based a novel data assimilation procedure that will produce probabilistic time-dependent slip models assimilating geodetic, seismic and tsunami datasets. While slow and rapid fault processes are usually studied independently, this unified approach will address the relative contribution of seismic and aseismic deformation.

The first step is the development of a novel probabilistic data assimilation method providing reliable uncertainty estimates and combining multiple data types. The second step is a validation of the method and an application to investigate the onset of recent megathrust earthquakes in Chile and Japan. The third step is the extensive, global use of the algorithm to the continuous monitoring of time-dependent slip along active faults providing an automated detector of the nucleation of earthquakes.

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The information about "PRESEISMIC" are provided by the European Opendata Portal: CORDIS opendata.

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