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Prediction of Geospace Radiation Environment and solar wind parameters

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






Project "PROGRESS" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
postcode: S10 2TN

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country United Kingdom [UK]
 Project website
 Total cost 2˙359˙235 €
 EC max contribution 2˙358˙230 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.2.1.6. (INDUSTRIAL LEADERSHIP - Leadership in enabling and industrial technologies – Space)
 Code Call H2020-PROTEC-2014
 Funding Scheme RIA
 Starting year 2015
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2015-01-01   to  2018-07-31


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    THE UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD UK (SHEFFIELD) coordinator 727˙402.00
2    THE UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK UK (COVENTRY) participant 386˙031.00
3    INSTITUTET FOR RYMDFYSIK SE (KIRUNA) participant 322˙440.00
4    ILMATIETEEN LAITOS FI (HELSINKI) participant 274˙395.00


 Project objective

The smooth functioning of the European economy and the welfare of its citizens depends upon an ever-growing set of services and facilities that are reliant on space and ground based infrastructure. Examples include communications (radio, TV, mobile phones), navigation of aircraft and private transport via GPS, and service industries (e.g. banking). These services, however, can be adversely affected by the space weather hazards. The forecasting of space weather hazards, driven by the dynamical processes originating on the sun, is critical to the mitigation of their negative effects. This proposal brings world leading groups in the fields of space physics and systems science in order to develop an accurate and reliable forecast system for space weather. It combines their individual strengths to significantly improve the current modelling capabilities within Europe and to produce a set of forecast tools to accurately predict the occurrence and severity of space weather events. Within project PROGRESS we will develop an European tool to forecast the solar wind parameters just upstream of the Earth's magnetosphere. We will develop a comprehensive set of forecasting tools for geomagnetic indices. We will combine the most accurate data based forecast of electron fluxes at GEO with the most comprehensive physics based model of the radiation belts currently available to deliver a reliable forecast of radiation environment in the radiation belts. This project will deliver these individual forecast tools together with a unified tool that combines the forecasting tools with the prediction of the solar wind parameters at L1 to substantially increase the lead-time of space weather forecasts.


List of deliverables.
Final version of the statistical wave models Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
Trial version of forecast model for low energy electrons Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:55
Forecasts of the energetic electron populations within the inner magnetosphere Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
Results of the VNC model and two methods of model couplings Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
The results of individual forecasts of geomagnetic indices Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
Exploitation and Dissemination Plan Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:55
The coupling of the AWSoM and SWIFT codes Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:55
Kp and Dst models Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:55
On orbit forecasts of the energetic electron populations Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
AE models Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:55
Dst and Kp Models Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
Summary of the space weather environment Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
The incorporation of diffusion coefficients from VERB into IMPTAM Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
Real-time model implementation Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:55
The VERB-IMPTAM low energy seed population Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
Use of data assimilation technique within VERB code model Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:56
SWIFT documentation Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:55
Collection of data sets Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:52
Project web site Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. 2020-01-21 09:41:52
The database of wave occurrence. Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:52
Data availability and list of chosen locations for each wave emission Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:52
Solar wind drivers of low energy plasmasheet electrons Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:52
Model verification Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:53
NARMAX models of electron fluxes sat GEO Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:52
Results of the Error Reduction Ratio analysis Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:52
Existing Dst, Kp, and AEmodels Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:52
Conversion of SWIFT to spherical geometry Documents, reports 2020-01-21 09:41:52

Take a look to the deliverables list in detail:  detailed list of PROGRESS deliverables.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2018 R. J. Boynton, H. Aryan, S. N. Walker, V. Krasnoselskikh, M. A. Balikhin
The Influence of Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Indices on Lower Band Chorus Emissions in the Inner Magnetosphere
published pages: 9022-9034, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1029/2018JA025704
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 123/11 2020-01-21
2018 Tamas I. Gombosi, Bart van der Holst, Ward B. Manchester, Igor V. Sokolov
Extended MHD modeling of the steady solar corona and the solar wind
published pages: , ISSN: 1614-4961, DOI: 10.1007/s41116-018-0014-4
Living Reviews in Solar Physics 15/1 2020-01-21
2017 R. J. Boynton, D. Mourenas, M. A. Balikhin
Electron Flux Dropouts at L ∼ 4.2 From Global Positioning System Satellites: Occurrences, Magnitudes, and Main Driving Factors
published pages: 11,428-11,441, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024523
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 122/11 2020-01-21
2018 Binbin Ni, Xing Cao, Yuri Y. Shprits, Danny Summers, Xudong Gu, Song Fu, Yuequn Lou
Hot Plasma Effects on the Cyclotron-Resonant Pitch-Angle Scattering Rates of Radiation Belt Electrons Due to EMIC Waves
published pages: 21-30, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076028
Geophysical Research Letters 45/1 2020-01-21
2017 Joseph E. Borovsky, Yuri Y. Shprits
Is the Dst Index Sufficient to Define All Geospace Storms?
published pages: 11,543-11,547, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024679
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 122/11 2020-01-21
2018 S. Dubyagin, N. Yu. Ganushkina, V. Sergeev
Formation of 30 KeV Proton Isotropic Boundaries During Geomagnetic Storms
published pages: 3436-3459, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024587
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 123/5 2020-01-21
2017 M. E. Usanova, Y. Y. Shprits
Inner magnetosphere coupling: Recent advances
published pages: 102-104, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2016JA023614
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 122/1 2020-01-21
2018 Marina Kubyshkina, Vladimir Semenov, Nikolay Erkaev, Evgeny Gordeev, Stepan Dubyagin, Natalia Ganushkina, Maria Shukhtina
Relations Between v z and B x Components in Solar Wind and their Effect on Substorm Onset
published pages: 3760-3767, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076268
Geophysical Research Letters 45/9 2020-01-21
2018 N. Yu. Ganushkina, M. W. Liemohn, S. Dubyagin
Current Systems in the Earth\'s Magnetosphere
published pages: 309-332, ISSN: 8755-1209, DOI: 10.1002/2017RG000590
Reviews of Geophysics 56/2 2020-01-21
2018 Borovikov, D.; Sokolov, I. V.; Roussev, I.; Taktakishvili, A.; Gombosi, T. I.
Toward Quantitative Model for Simulation and Forecast of Solar Energetic Particles Production during Gradual Events - I: Magnetohydrodynamic Background Coupled to the SEP Model
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
1 2020-01-21
2017 N. A. Aseev, Y. Y. Shprits, A. Y. Drozdov, A. C. Kellerman, M. E. Usanova, D. Wang, I. S. Zhelavskaya
Signatures of Ultrarelativistic Electron Loss in the Heart of the Outer Radiation Belt Measured by Van Allen Probes
published pages: , ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024485
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics Volume 122 2020-01-21
2018 Y. Y. Shprits, J. D. Menietti, A. Y. Drozdov, R. B. Horne, E. E. Woodfield, J. B. Groene, M. de Soria-Santacruz, T. F. Averkamp, H. Garrett, C. Paranicas, D. A. Gurnett
Strong whistler mode waves observed in the vicinity of Jupiter’s moons
published pages: , ISSN: 2041-1723, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05431-x
Nature Communications 9/1 2020-01-21
2017 D. Borovikov, I. V. Sokolov, W. B. Manchester, M. Jin, T. I. Gombosi
Eruptive event generator based on the Gibson-Low magnetic configuration
published pages: 7979-7984, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024304
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 122/8 2020-01-21
2015 Shastun, Vitlii; Agapitov, Oleksiy
A reconstruction method of electron density distribution in the equatorial region of magnetosphere
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
Advances in Astronomy and Space Physics 1 2020-01-21
2017 Ilkka Sillanpää, N. Yu. Ganushkina, S. Dubyagin, J. V. Rodriguez
Electron Fluxes at Geostationary Orbit From GOES MAGED Data
published pages: 1602-1614, ISSN: 1542-7390, DOI: 10.1002/2017SW001698
Space Weather 15/12 2020-01-21
2018 Yuanlin Gu, Hua-Liang Wei
A robust model structure selection method for small sample size and multiple datasets problems
published pages: 195-209, ISSN: 0020-0255, DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2018.04.007
Information Sciences 451-452 2020-01-21
2017 Sokolov, Igor V.; van der Holst, Bart; Manchester, Ward B.; Ozturk, Doga Can Su; Szente, Judit; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Tóth, Gabor; Jin, Meng; Gombosi, Tamas I.
Threaded-Field-Lines Model for the Low Solar Corona Powered by the Alfven Wave Turbulence
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
1 2020-01-21
2017 Azlyna Senawi, Hua-Liang Wei, Stephen A. Billings
A new maximum relevance-minimum multicollinearity (MRmMC) method for feature selection and ranking
published pages: 47-61, ISSN: 0031-3203, DOI: 10.1016/j.patcog.2017.01.026
Pattern Recognition 67 2020-01-21
2017 J. C. Green, J. Likar, Yuri Shprits
Impact of space weather on the satellite industry
published pages: 804-818, ISSN: 1542-7390, DOI: 10.1002/2017SW001646
Space Weather 15/6 2020-01-21
2017 Xing Cao, Yuri Y. Shprits, Binbin Ni, Irina S. Zhelavskaya
Scattering of Ultra-relativistic Electrons in the Van Allen Radiation Belts Accounting for Hot Plasma Effects
published pages: , ISSN: 2045-2322, DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-17739-7
Scientific Reports 7/1 2020-01-21
2017 A. Y. Drozdov, Y. Y. Shprits, N. A. Aseev, A. C. Kellerman, G. D. Reeves
Dependence of radiation belt simulations to assumed radial diffusion rates tested for two empirical models of radial transport
published pages: 150-162, ISSN: 1542-7390, DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001426
Space Weather 15/1 2020-01-21
2018 Andrey Y. Malykhin, Elena E. Grigorenko, Elena A. Kronberg, Rositza Koleva, Natalia Y. Ganushkina, Ludmila Kozak, Patrick W. Daly
Contrasting dynamics of electrons and protons in the near-Earth plasma sheet during dipolarization
published pages: 741-760, ISSN: 1432-0576, DOI: 10.5194/angeo-36-741-2018
Annales Geophysicae 36/3 2020-01-21
2017 Irina S. Zhelavskaya, Yuri Y. Shprits, Maria Spasojević
Empirical Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics Using Neural Networks
published pages: 11,227-11,244, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024406
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 122/11 2020-01-21
2017 Jose Roberto Ayala Solares, Hua-Liang Wei, Stephen A. Billings
A novel logistic-NARX model as a classifier for dynamic binary classification
published pages: , ISSN: 0941-0643, DOI: 10.1007/s00521-017-2976-x
Neural Computing and Applications 2020-01-21
2018 E. E. Grigorenko, S. Dubyagin, A. Yu. Malykhin, Yu V. Khotyaintsev, E. A. Kronberg, B. Lavraud, N. Yu Ganushkina
Intense Current Structures Observed at Electron Kinetic Scales in the Near-Earth Magnetotail During Dipolarization and Substorm Current Wedge Formation
published pages: 602-611, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076303
Geophysical Research Letters 45/2 2020-01-21
2017 Kyung-Chan Kim, Yuri Shprits
Dependence of the amplitude of magnetosonic waves on the solar wind and AE index using Van Allen Probes
published pages: 6022-6034, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2017JA024094
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 122/6 2020-01-21
2017 M. Jin, W. B. Manchester, B. van der Holst, I. Sokolov, G. Tóth, R. E. Mullinix, A. Taktakishvili, A. Chulaki, T. I. Gombosi
published pages: 173, ISSN: 1538-4357, DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/834/2/173
The Astrophysical Journal 834/2 2020-01-21
2016 Yuri Y. Shprits, Alexander Y. Drozdov, Maria Spasojevic, Adam C. Kellerman, Maria E. Usanova, Mark J. Engebretson, Oleksiy V. Agapitov, Irina S. Zhelavskaya, Tero J. Raita, Harlan E. Spence, Daniel N. Baker, Hui Zhu, Nikita A. Aseev
Wave-induced loss of ultra-relativistic electrons in the Van Allen radiation belts
published pages: 12883, ISSN: 2041-1723, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12883
Nature Communications 7 2020-01-21
2015 R. Ilie, N. Ganushkina, G. Toth, S. Dubyagin, M. W. Liemohn
Testing the magnetotail configuration based on observations of low-altitude isotropic boundaries during quiet times
published pages: 10,557-10,573, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2015JA021858
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 120/12 2020-01-21
2015 S. N. Walker, M. A. Balikhin, D. R. Shklyar, K. H. Yearby, P. Canu, C. M. Carr, I. Dandouras
Experimental determination of the dispersion relation of magnetosonic waves
published pages: 9632-9650, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2015JA021746
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 120/11 2020-01-21
2015 N. Y. Ganushkina, M. W. Liemohn, S. Dubyagin, I. A. Daglis, I. Dandouras, D. L. De Zeeuw, Y. Ebihara, R. Ilie, R. Katus, M. Kubyshkina, S. E. Milan, S. Ohtani, N. Ostgaard, J. P. Reistad, P. Tenfjord, F. Toffoletto, S. Zaharia, O. Amariutei
Defining and resolving current systems in geospace
published pages: 1369-1402, ISSN: 1432-0576, DOI: 10.5194/angeo-33-1369-2015
Annales Geophysicae 33/11 2020-01-21
2017 J. Szente, G. Toth, W. B. Manchester IV, B. van der Holst, E. Landi, T. I. Gombosi, C. R. DeVore, S. K. Antiochos
published pages: 123, ISSN: 1538-4357, DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/834/2/123
The Astrophysical Journal 834/2 2020-01-21
2016 Simon N. Walker, Andrei G. Demekhov, Scott A. Boardsen, Natalia Y. Ganushkina, David G. Sibeck, Michael A. Balikhin
Cluster observations of non-time continuous magnetosonic waves
published pages: , ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2016JA023287
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 2020-01-21
2016 R. J. Boynton, D. Mourenas, M. A. Balikhin
Electron flux dropouts at Geostationary Earth Orbit: Occurrences, magnitudes, and main driving factors
published pages: 8448-8461, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2016JA022916
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 121/9 2020-01-21
2015 S. Dubyagin, N. Ganushkina, M. Liemohn, M. Kubyshkina
Can ring current stabilize magnetotail during steady magnetospheric convection?
published pages: 10,528-10,542, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2015JA022003
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 120/12 2020-01-21
2015 Michael A. Balikhin, Yuri Y. Shprits, Simon N. Walker, Lunjin Chen, Nicole Cornilleau-Wehrlin, Iannis Dandouras, Ondrej Santolik, Christopher Carr, Keith H. Yearby, Benjamin Weiss
Observations of discrete harmonics emerging from equatorial noise
published pages: 7703, ISSN: 2041-1723, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8703
Nature Communications 6 2020-01-21
2015 Yuri Y. Shprits, Adam C. Kellerman, Alexander Y. Drozdov, Harlan E. Spence, Geoffrey D. Reeves, Daniel N. Baker
Combined convective and diffusive simulations: VERB-4D comparison with 17 March 2013 Van Allen Probes observations
published pages: 9600-9608, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065230
Geophysical Research Letters 42/22 2020-01-21
2016 M. A. Balikhin, J. V. Rodriguez, R. J. Boynton, S. N. Walker, H. Aryan, D. G. Sibeck, S. A. Billings
Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO
published pages: 22-31, ISSN: 1542-7390, DOI: 10.1002/2015SW001303
Space Weather 14/1 2020-01-21
2015 R. Ilie, M. W. Liemohn, G. Toth, N. Yu Ganushkina, L. K. S. Daldorff
Assessing the role of oxygen on ring current formation and evolution through numerical experiments
published pages: 4656-4668, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2015JA021157
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 120/6 2020-01-21
2015 M. Spasojevic, Y. Y. Shprits, K. Orlova
Global empirical models of plasmaspheric hiss using Van Allen Probes
published pages: 10,370-10,383, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2015JA021803
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 120/12 2020-01-21
2017 Yuri Y. Shprits, Adam Kellerman, Nikita Aseev, Alexander Y. Drozdov, Ingo Michaelis
Multi-MeV electron loss in the heart of the radiation belts
published pages: 1204-1209, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072258
Geophysical Research Letters 44/3 2020-01-21
2016 J.-F. Ripoll, V. Loridan, G. S. Cunningham, G. D. Reeves, Y. Y. Shprits
On the time needed to reach an equilibrium structure of the radiation belts
published pages: 7684-7698, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2015JA022207
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 121/8 2020-01-21
2016 I. S. Zhelavskaya, M. Spasojevic, Y. Y. Shprits, W. S. Kurth
Automated determination of electron density from electric field measurements on the Van Allen Probes spacecraft
published pages: 4611-4625, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2015JA022132
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 121/5 2020-01-21
2016 R. J. Boynton, M. A. Balikhin, D. G. Sibeck, S. N. Walker, S. A. Billings, N. Ganushkina
Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit
published pages: 846-860, ISSN: 1542-7390, DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001506
Space Weather 14/10 2020-01-21
2016 Jose Roberto Ayala Solares, Hua-Liang Wei, R. J. Boynton, Simon N. Walker, Stephen A. Billings
Modeling and prediction of global magnetic disturbance in near-Earth space: A case study for K p index using NARX models
published pages: 899-916, ISSN: 1542-7390, DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001463
Space Weather 14/10 2020-01-21
2016 Bogdan Uzbekov, Yuri Y. Shprits, Ksenia Orlova
Scattering of relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons by obliquely propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron waves
published pages: 22-31, ISSN: 1364-6826, DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2016.08.004
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 148 2020-01-21
2016 E. E. Grigorenko, E. A. Kronberg, P. W. Daly, N. Yu. Ganushkina, B. Lavraud, J.-A. Sauvaud, L. M. Zelenyi
Origin of low proton-to-electron temperature ratio in the Earth\'s plasma sheet
published pages: 9985-10,004, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2016JA022874
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 121/10 2020-01-21
2017 M. Jin, W. B. Manchester, B. van der Holst, I. Sokolov, G. Tóth, A. Vourlidas, C. A. de Koning, T. I. Gombosi
published pages: 172, ISSN: 1538-4357, DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/834/2/172
The Astrophysical Journal 834/2 2020-01-21
2016 S. Dubyagin, N. Yu. Ganushkina, I. Sillanpää, A. Runov
Solar wind-driven variations of electron plasma sheet densities and temperatures beyond geostationary orbit during storm times
published pages: 8343-8360, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2016JA022947
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 121/9 2020-01-21
2016 Michael W. Liemohn, Natalia Y. Ganushkina, Raluca Ilie, Daniel T. Welling
Challenges associated with near-Earth nightside current
published pages: 6763-6768, ISSN: 2169-9380, DOI: 10.1002/2016JA022948
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 121/7 2020-01-21

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