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Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate predictions

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






Project "STERCP" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
address: MUSEPLASSEN 1
city: BERGEN
postcode: 5020

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country Norway [NO]
 Total cost 1˙999˙388 €
 EC max contribution 1˙999˙388 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2014-CoG
 Funding Scheme ERC-COG
 Starting year 2015
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2015-09-01   to  2021-08-31


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    UNIVERSITETET I BERGEN NO (BERGEN) coordinator 1˙999˙388.00


 Project objective

Climate prediction is the next frontier in climate research. Prediction of climate on timescales from a season to a decade has shown progress, but beyond the ocean skill remains low. And while the historical evolution of climate at global scales can be reasonably simulated, agreement at a regional level is limited and large uncertainties exist in future climate change. These large uncertainties pose a major challenge to those providing climate services and to informing policy makers.

This proposal aims to investigate the potential of an innovative technique to reduce model systematic error, and hence to improve climate prediction skill and reduce uncertainties in future climate projections. The current practice to account for model systematic error, as for example adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is to perform simulations with ensembles of different models. This leads to more reliable predictions, and to a better representation of climate. Instead of running models independently, we propose to connect the different models in manner that they synchronise and errors compensate, thus leading to a model superior to any of the individual models – a super model.

The concept stems from theoretical non-dynamics and relies on advanced machine learning algorithms. Its application to climate modelling has been rudimentary. Nevertheless, our initial results show it holds great promise for improving climate prediction. To achieve even greater gains, we will extend the approach to allow greater connectivity among multiple complex climate models to create a true super climate model. We will assess the approach’s potential to enhance seasonal-to-decadal prediction, focusing on the Tropical Pacific and North Atlantic, and to reduce uncertainties in climate projections. Importantly, this work will improve our understanding of climate, as well as how systematic model errors impact prediction skill and contribute to climate change uncertainties.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2018 Shunya Koseki, Benjamin Pohl, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Noel Keenlyside, Arielle Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo
Insights into the Summer Diurnal Cycle over Eastern South Africa
published pages: 4339-4356, ISSN: 0027-0644, DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0184.1
Monthly Weather Review 146/12 2020-03-24
2019 Shunya Koseki, Hervé Giordani, Katerina Goubanova
Frontogenesis of the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone
published pages: 83-96, ISSN: 1812-0792, DOI: 10.5194/os-15-83-2019
Ocean Science 15/1 2020-03-24
2019 William Cabos, Alba de la Vara, Shunya Koseki
Tropical Atlantic Variability: Observations and Modeling
published pages: 502, ISSN: 2073-4433, DOI: 10.3390/atmos10090502
Atmosphere 10/9 2020-03-24
2019 Shunya Koseki, Priscilla A. Mooney
Influences of Lake Malawi on the spatial and diurnal variability of local precipitation
published pages: 2795-2812, ISSN: 1607-7938, DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23/7 2019-12-16
2019 Francine Schevenhoven, Frank Selten, Alberto Carrassi, Noel Keenlyside
Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels
published pages: 789-807, ISSN: 2190-4987, DOI: 10.5194/esd-10-789-2019
Earth System Dynamics 10/4 2019-12-16
2019 Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Lea Svendsen, Stephanie Gleixner, Madlen Kimmritz, Panxi Dai, Yongqi Gao
Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF
published pages: , ISSN: 0930-7575, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04897-9
Climate Dynamics 2019-10-01
2019 Sunil Kumar Pariyar, Noel Keenlyside, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Nour-Eddine Omrani
The Dominant Patterns of Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability in May–October and November–April over the Tropical Western Pacific
published pages: 2941-2960, ISSN: 0027-0644, DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0383.1
Monthly Weather Review 147/8 2019-08-30
2018 Fumiaki Ogawa, Noel Keenlyside, Yongqi Gao, Torben Koenigk, Shuting Yang, Lingling Suo, Tao Wang, Guillaume Gastineau, Tetsu Nakamura, Ho Nam Cheung, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Jinro Ukita, Vladimir Semenov
Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change
published pages: 3255-3263, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2017gl076502
Geophysical Research Letters 45/7 2019-08-30
2018 Arielle Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Shunya Koseki, Noel Keenlyside, Mathieu Rouault
Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas Current
published pages: , ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1029/2018gl077042
Geophysical Research Letters 2019-08-30
2017 Shunya Koseki, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt
Unique relationship between tropical rainfall and SST to the north of the Mozambique Channel in boreal winter
published pages: , ISSN: 0899-8418, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5378
International Journal of Climatology 2019-08-30
2018 Gregory S. Duane, Wim Wiegerinck, Frank Selten, Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside
Supermodeling: Synchronization of Alternative Dynamical Models of a Single Objective Process
published pages: 101-121, ISSN: , DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-58895-7_5
Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences 2019-08-30
2017 Stephanie Gleixner, Noel S Keenlyside, Teferi D Demissie, François Counillon, Yiguo Wang, Ellen Viste
Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models
published pages: 114016, ISSN: 1748-9326, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfa
Environmental Research Letters 12/11 2019-08-30
2017 Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside, Bhuwan C. Bhatt, Gregory S. Duane
Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate
published pages: 126704, ISSN: 1054-1500, DOI: 10.1063/1.4990713
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 27/12 2019-08-30
2017 Frank M. Selten, Francine J. Schevenhoven, Gregory S. Duane
Simulating climate with a synchronization-based supermodel
published pages: 126903, ISSN: 1054-1500, DOI: 10.1063/1.4990721
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 27/12 2019-08-30
2018 Hoffman H. N. Cheung, Noel Keenlyside, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Wen Zhou
Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate
published pages: 38-51, ISSN: 0256-1530, DOI: 10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 35/1 2019-08-30
2016 Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside, Frank Selten, Wim Wiegerinck, Gregory S. Duane
Dynamically combining climate models to “supermodel” the tropical Pacific
published pages: 359-366, ISSN: 0094-8276, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066562
Geophysical Research Letters 43/1 2019-08-30
2016 Elsa Mohino, Noel Keenlyside, Holger Pohlmann
Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?
published pages: 3593-3612, ISSN: 0930-7575, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3416-9
Climate Dynamics 47/11 2019-08-30
2016 Annika Reintges, Thomas Martin, Mojib Latif, Noel S. Keenlyside
Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models
published pages: , ISSN: 0930-7575, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3180-x
Climate Dynamics 2019-08-30
2016 Stephanie Gleixner, Noel Keenlyside, Ellen Viste, Diriba Korecha
The El Niño effect on Ethiopian summer rainfall
published pages: , ISSN: 0930-7575, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3421-z
Climate Dynamics 2019-08-30
2018 Lander R. Crespo, Noel Keenlyside, Shunya Koseki
The role of sea surface temperature in the atmospheric seasonal cycle of the equatorial Atlantic
published pages: , ISSN: 0930-7575, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4489-4
Climate Dynamics 2019-08-30
2018 Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Yongqi Gao, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic
published pages: 793-797, ISSN: 1758-678X, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1
Nature Climate Change 8/9 2019-08-30

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