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HistoricEpi SIGNED

Quantiative Study of Major Historic Epidemics and Transitions to longer, healthier lives

Total Cost €

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EC-Contrib. €

0

Partnership

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 HistoricEpi project word cloud

Explore the words cloud of the HistoricEpi project. It provides you a very rough idea of what is the project "HistoricEpi" about.

systematically    visiting    drinking    antibiotics    measles    sanitation    social    historical    royal    clean    feasible    trust    academy    dramatically    abroad    promise    time    transition    housing    danish    diphtheria    only    successful    understand    re    died    typhoid    infections    statistical    pertussis    little    back    25    uniquely    water    elected    occurred    return    interdisciplinary    1880    smallpox    integration    institutes    quantitative    2nd    influenza    scope    disease    senior    beginning    sciences    receive    series    suited    causes    life    diseases    lay    pandemic    medical    wish    broaden    began    health    epidemiology    academia    expectancy    few    plummeted    vaccines    professor    copenhagen    university    data    rigorously    europeans    mortality    context    denmark    ago    global    fever    death    tuberculosis    morbidity    cholera    replacing    illuminate    emergence    had    infectious    rose    signals    dynamic    historic    nutrition    scarlet    honor    national    quantitatively    modeling    rescue    epidemiologic    native    researcher    chronic    master    letters    infancy    150    decades   

Project "HistoricEpi" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.

Coordinator
KOBENHAVNS UNIVERSITET 

Organization address
address: NORREGADE 10
city: KOBENHAVN
postcode: 1165
website: www.ku.dk

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country Denmark [DK]
 Project website http://cope.ku.dk/
 Total cost 212˙194 €
 EC max contribution 212˙194 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.3.2. (Nurturing excellence by means of cross-border and cross-sector mobility)
 Code Call H2020-MSCA-IF-2014
 Funding Scheme MSCA-IF-EF-RI
 Starting year 2015
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2015-10-01   to  2017-09-30

 Partnership

Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    KOBENHAVNS UNIVERSITET DK (KOBENHAVN) coordinator 212˙194.00

Map

 Project objective

Only 150 years ago, one in five Europeans died in infancy, life expectancy was 40 years, and the leading causes of death were infectious diseases: tuberculosis, smallpox, measles, pertussis, diphtheria, cholera, typhoid fever, scarlet fever. But in just a few decades beginning about 1880, life expectancy rose dramatically as infectious disease mortality plummeted. This “2nd epidemiologic transition”, in which chronic diseases began replacing infections as leading causes of death, occurred well in advance of antibiotics and most vaccines. Many factors have been proposed to explain it, including improved nutrition, sanitation, clean drinking water, better housing and the emergence of social support systems.

Little has been done, however, to systematically rescue and quantitatively study historic health data and rigorously investigate the epidemiologic transition. I lay out here an ambitious, novel, interdisciplinary and feasible proposal to do just that. In the process, I will broaden my research scope from statistical modeling of historic pandemic influenza to all historic infections, understand the historical context in which the transition occurred, and master new concepts in dynamic disease modeling. Danish historic medical data are uniquely detailed and reach far back in time, and are uniquely suited for quantitative studies of long time series of morbidity and mortality, with the promise to further illuminate the epidemiology of important diseases including smallpox, cholera, and measles.

After 25 years abroad as a senior researcher at the National Institutes of Health and Professor of Global Health in the U.S., I now wish to return to my native Denmark. I had the honor this year to be elected to the Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters, and receive funding to be a visiting professor at the University of Copenhagen, and trust this signals the beginning of my successful re-integration to European academia.

 Publications

year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2017 Cécile Viboud, Kaiyuan Sun, Robert Gaffey, Marco Ajelli, Laura Fumanelli, Stefano Merler, Qian Zhang, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Alessandro Vespignani
The RAPIDD ebola forecasting challenge: Synthesis and lessons learnt
published pages: , ISSN: 1755-4365, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.08.002
Epidemics 2019-06-18
2017 Gerardo Chowell, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani
Perspectives on model forecasts of the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa: lessons and the way forward
published pages: , ISSN: 1741-7015, DOI: 10.1186/s12916-017-0811-y
BMC Medicine 15/1 2019-06-18
2016 Lone Simonsen, Cécile Viboud
The power of historical data for assessment of childhood vaccine benefits
published pages: 516-518, ISSN: 1473-3099, DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00060-8
The Lancet Infectious Diseases 16/5 2019-06-18
2016 Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Rodrigo Fuentes, Jose Flores, Mark A. Miller, Gerardo Chowell
Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic
published pages: 738-745, ISSN: 0022-1899, DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiv534
Journal of Infectious Diseases 213/5 2019-06-18
2017 Matthew Phelps, Mads Linnet Perner, Virginia E Pitzer, Viggo Andreasen, Peter K M Jensen, Lone Simonsen
Cholera epidemics of the past offer new insights into an old enemy
published pages: , ISSN: 0022-1899, DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jix602
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 2019-06-18
2015 Wladimir J. Alonso, Christine Yu, Cecile Viboud, Stephanie A. Richard, Cynthia Schuck-Paim, Lone Simonsen, Wyller A. Mello, Mark A. Miller
A global map of hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations based on local patterns of viral circulation
published pages: , ISSN: 2045-2322, DOI: 10.1038/srep17214
Scientific Reports 5/1 2019-06-18
2016 Cynthia Schuck-Paim, Daniel López, Lone Simonsen, Wladimir Alonso
Unintended Pregnancies in Brazil - A Challenge for the Recommendation to Delay Pregnancy Due to Zika
published pages: , ISSN: 2157-3999, DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.7038a6813f734c1db547240c2a0ba291
PLoS Currents 2019-06-18
2017 Vivek Charu, Scott Zeger, Julia Gog, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, Stephen Kissler, Lone Simonsen, Bryan T. Grenfell, Cécile Viboud
Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States
published pages: e1005382, ISSN: 1553-7358, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005382
PLOS Computational Biology 13/2 2019-06-18
2016 Lone Simonsen, Julia R. Gog, Don Olson, Cécile Viboud
Infectious Disease Surveillance in the Big Data Era: Towards Faster and Locally Relevant Systems
published pages: S380-S385, ISSN: 0022-1899, DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiw376
Journal of Infectious Diseases 214/suppl 4 2019-06-18
2017 Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Gerardo Chowell, Alessandro Vespignani
The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge special issue: Preface
published pages: , ISSN: 1755-4365, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.10.003
Epidemics 2019-06-18
2017 Marco Ajelli, Qian Zhang, Kaiyuan Sun, Stefano Merler, Laura Fumanelli, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Cecile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
The RAPIDD Ebola forecasting challenge: Model description and synthetic data generation
published pages: , ISSN: 1755-4365, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.09.001
Epidemics 2019-06-18
2016 Shweta Bansal, Gerardo Chowell, Lone Simonsen, Alessandro Vespignani, Cécile Viboud
Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Modeling
published pages: S375-S379, ISSN: 0022-1899, DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiw400
Journal of Infectious Diseases 214/suppl 4 2019-06-18
2016 Gerardo Chowell, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Seyed M. Moghadas
Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics
published pages: 20160659, ISSN: 1742-5689, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0659
Journal of The Royal Society Interface 13/123 2019-06-18
2015 Gerardo Chowell, Cécile Viboud, James M Hyman, Lone Simonsen
The Western Africa Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Exhibits Both Global Exponential and Local Polynomial Growth Rates
published pages: , ISSN: 2157-3999, DOI: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.8b55f4bad99ac5c5db3663e916803261
PLoS Currents 2019-06-18

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