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Climate Variability and Security Threats

Total Cost €


EC-Contrib. €






 CLIMSEC project word cloud

Explore the words cloud of the CLIMSEC project. It provides you a very rough idea of what is the project "CLIMSEC" about.

overarching    referenced    prio    context    qualitative    notable    security    severe    shortcomings    simulations    conceptual    representative    actors    methodological    anomalies    inference    involve    impacts    pattern    buhaug    economic    empirical    uprisings    publication    spring    geo    scales    rigorous    data    temporal    claims    fixed    gaps    spatial    conduct    disaggregation    political    asks    validation    halvard    scholar    force    central    statistical    food    climate    record    unitary    frontier    forecasts    dynamics    conflict    entities    causal    multiple    recent    forms    variability    violence    climsec    led    trigger    arab    testable    world    proposes    assuming    professor    endeavor    driving    violent    accomplishment    combine    types    accentuated    date    depending    theoretical    theorizing    conclude    calendar    limit    broad    models    implications    droughts    relationship    innovative    outcomes    shocks    failed    resistance    instead    analytical    insecurity    accounts    question    act    model   

Project "CLIMSEC" data sheet

The following table provides information about the project.


Organization address
city: OSLO
postcode: 186

contact info
title: n.a.
name: n.a.
surname: n.a.
function: n.a.
email: n.a.
telephone: n.a.
fax: n.a.

 Coordinator Country Norway [NO]
 Project website
 Total cost 1˙996˙945 €
 EC max contribution 1˙996˙945 € (100%)
 Programme 1. H2020-EU.1.1. (EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC))
 Code Call ERC-2014-CoG
 Funding Scheme ERC-COG
 Starting year 2015
 Duration (year-month-day) from 2015-09-01   to  2021-06-30


Take a look of project's partnership.

# participants  country  role  EC contrib. [€] 
1    INSTITUTT FOR FREDSFORSKNING NO (OSLO) coordinator 1˙996˙945.00


 Project objective

Recent uprisings across the world have accentuated claims that food insecurity is an important trigger of political violence. Is the Arab Spring representative of a general climate-conflict pattern, where severe droughts and other climate anomalies are a key driving force? Research to date has failed to conclude on a robust relationship but several notable theoretical and methodological shortcomings limit inference. CLIMSEC will address these research gaps. It asks: How does climate variability affect dynamics of political violence? This overarching research question will be addressed through the accomplishment of four key objectives: (1) Investigate how food security impacts of climate variability affect political violence; (2) Investigate how economic impacts of climate variability affect political violence; (3) Conduct short-term forecasts of political violence in response to food and economic shocks; and (4) Develop a comprehensive, testable theoretical model of security implications of climate variability. To achieve these objectives, CLIMSEC will advance the research frontier on theoretical as well as analytical accounts. Central in this endeavor is conceptual and empirical disaggregation. Instead of assuming states and calendar years as unitary and fixed entities, the project proposes causal processes that act at multiple temporal and spatial scales, involve various types of actors, and lead to very different forms of outcomes depending on the context. The empirical component will make innovative use of new geo - referenced data and methods; focus on a broad range of insecurity outcomes, including non-violent resistance; and combine rigorous statistical models with out-of-sample simulations and qualitative case studies for theorizing and validation of key findings. Based at PRIO, the project will be led by Research Professor Halvard Buhaug, a leading scholar on climate change and security with strong publication record and project management experience.


year authors and title journal last update
List of publications.
2016 Halvard Buhaug
Climate Change and Conflict: Taking Stock
published pages: , ISSN: 1079-2457, DOI: 10.1515/peps-2016-0034
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 22/4 2020-03-20
2016 Nina von Uexkull, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Halvard Buhaug
Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought
published pages: 12391-12396, ISSN: 0027-8424, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1607542113
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113/44 2020-03-20
2017 Jonas Nordkvelle, Siri Aas Rustad, Monika Salmivalli
Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization
published pages: 627-639, ISSN: 0165-0009, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1914-3
Climatic Change 141/4 2020-03-20
2016 Andreas F. Tollefsen, Karim Bahgat, Jonas Nordkvelle, and Halvard Buhaug
PRIO-GRID v.2.0 Codebook
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
Codebook 2020-03-20
2016 HÃ¥vard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Katherine V Calvin, Jonas Nordkvelle, Stephanie T Waldhoff, Elisabeth Gilmore
Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways
published pages: 54002, ISSN: 1748-9326, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054002
Environmental Research Letters 11/5 2020-03-20
2017 Ole Magnus Theisen
Climate Change and Violence: Insights from Political Science
published pages: 210-221, ISSN: 2198-6061, DOI: 10.1007/s40641-017-0079-5
Current Climate Change Reports 3/4 2020-03-20
2018 Halvard Buhaug
Global Security Challenges of Climate Change
published pages: , ISSN: , DOI:
Toda Peace Institute Policy Brief 18 2020-03-20
2018 A M Linke, F D W Witmer, J O’Loughlin, J T McCabe, J Tir
The consequences of relocating in response to drought: human mobility and conflict in contemporary Kenya
published pages: 94014, ISSN: 1748-9326, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aad8cc
Environmental Research Letters 13/9 2020-03-20
2018 Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Lauren Herzer Risi, Elizabeth Tennant, Halvard Buhaug
Bridging Research and Policy on Climate Change and Conflict
published pages: 313-319, ISSN: 2198-6061, DOI: 10.1007/s40641-018-0119-9
Current Climate Change Reports 4/4 2020-03-20

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